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Carreno and Brown played in Bastad last week. The conditions were slower, it was windy, and that suited Brown less. The German lost in two sets in the end, but he could have won in two sets. He missed all nine break balls, and the Spaniard used two of three. It was an unlucky defeat because Brown even had better service than his opponent. Then, Carreno's win was at 1.5, now it's at 1.3. I don't see why. Brown is playing at home, in the main time slot and in better conditions than those in Sweden. He threatened all the time, created lots of chances, and it will only help him today. I believe he can win, too, but I take the set because I definitely didn't expect the odds to be this high. Details

It seems unusual to bet on Luxembourg basketball team in any other situation, but I think it makes sense today. Luxembourg have a really interesting team in this generation. Great wing Grun, a quality center Wolff, versatile point guard Melcher, and the biggest star Hoeser who still didn't catch the real rhythm, make Luxembourg a decent B Division team. More would be expected from Romania, but they didn't show it. Except for the win against Estonia, who they outplayed in rebound and used their weaknesses, Romania play badly here. Portugal and BiH crushed them, revealed all their weaknesses, most of all in the offense, because Romania have huge 25 turnovers per match here, their backcourt can't score anything and their only real player is the wing center Cobzaru. Wolff can stop him, Luxembourg can pair them in the rebound, and then this becomes a completely evened out match, where I'd even give advantage to Luxembourg. Details

The odds on Min are dropping and there's a good reason for that. Last week, she played what was possibly the best tennis this season from her, she reached her first WTA semifinal and took a set against Petkovic who went on to win the tournament. Min has really shown her vast array of skills, she was good on her serve, return, she turned the ball from forehand to backhand well. Pavlyuchenkova has had one title this season but it was indoors, and all five matches ended in five sets, and she has had plenty of fluctuations this season. The conditions in Bastad are difficult, the surface is tricky, the wind is strong and there's a good chance of rain and the weather might make the organization difficult. These conditions hardly suit Pavlyuchenkova as she hasn't had an official match since Wimbledon and the question is how she reacts now against a player whose performance goes against hers. Coupled with Min's performance last week, her confidence and Pavlyuchenkova's fluctuatiing season and her general form, Min has a much better chance than the odds suggest and it's definitely worth going for her win. Details

Even though this championship is weird result-wise, one thing is more than clear. Czech are the worst team of the championship. The point guard Festr, and Peterka and Slanina as the centers are okay. Everyone else, not worth the mention. Germany will easily deal with the centers because they're strong and if Serbia couldn't impose themselves in the paint, the Czech stand no chance in doing that. If some other team played against the Czech in the second phase beginning, I might be reluctant about this pick, but Germans - well, they're the Germans. Ending up in the relegation battle won't crush them mentally like it would others. They have four great games behind them and they're very self-confident. What's positive for this pick is that Germany won't stop even if they get a double-digit advantage, it's just not in their mindset. These two teams played three times in the preliminary, at the very beginning. After Germany won by 19 and 23, in the third match, coach Menz gave Akpinar and Bryant some rest (he didn't even have Muller then), and it ended with a tie. Details

Hungary had a good situation to pass their group but they failed. However, even relegation battle is not a shock for Hungary as they were ready for something like that, which does not apply to the Russians who have suffered a debacle and will try to atone themselves now. This is a very important game and when we have two very defensive teams, it's realistic to expect a match with under 130 points. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia win this by 60-50 or some similar margin. Neither of these two teams have been brilliant in the first part of the tournament, Hungary had 61.8 points average, while Russia's average of 67.5 points per game would be lower if not for 77 points against terrible Bulgarians and the free-throw frenzy against Poles (71 points). The last game Hungary played against Latvia ended in 150 points as Latvia had an amazing shooting day (49 points in the first half), but that's not something the Russians are capable of and I expect a completely different game. Details

The Montenegrins had everything in their hands against Italy, but showed once again that this U20 generation isn't meant for big things. They lost the 13 points advantage they had, lost the match, and instead among the top 12, they ended up in the relegation battle. It had to influence their heads. Sweden got crushed by Germany in this competition, they didn't know how to respond to German aggressiveness, and it would be a stretch to say that Serbia demolished them, because the final -26 happened in the last ten minutes. Sweden were even to Serbia in the rest of the match, and they were keeping up against Slovenia for most of the match, too. Sweden aren't that bad offensively, their main problem is their offense when the opponent defense is aggressive. Montenegro didn't show that so far, and had problems defending the opponents' offenses. All in all, I think it will be an even match, and not blowout by Montenegro. To compare, Sweden played an even match against the Italians in Italy, and won by 2 points (they lost the second by 15), the same Italians who defeated Montenegro. And Montenegro, counting the EC preliminary, didn't cover this handicap in one of the 14 matches they played. They even defeated the worst team of Eurobasket, Czech, just by 14. Details