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The margin seems pretty humble, but nothing is too low for the Raiders, which they showed last week when they had zero. A defeat against the Seahawks really jeopardized the 49ers' chances for the playoffs, so I expect them to dominate the game tonight. They definitely have the quality both in the offense, and especially in the defense. Their defense is among the top three of the league, and I expect them to stop any attempt the Raiders make to keep up in the game. The Oakland guys scored over 16 points four times (14.7 per game), which speaks volumes about their offensive quality. I'm pretty convinced that won't help them tonight against the extremely motivated guests whose feet are burning. Details

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Looking at the past matches and results f these teams, both in the preparation period and while Russia played qualifications for the EC, an over on this margin seems obvious. Hungary played four of their last five matches close to or over 60 goals, the only under was the last prep game against France, but France are synonymous with defense, with slow transition, quite opposite to the Russians. With Russians, both in clubs and the national team, the focus is on offense, and defense is quite sketchy, as proven by their last five preparation matches, where Russia never conceded less than 27 goals. If we take qualifications into view, Russia allowed an offensively 'dead' Macedonia to score 24 and 23 in both their qualification matches, and the issues they had vs Germany on defense are even worse. I expect the fans to add their pressure and affect not only the Russians but the home team's focus as well, for a match that should go over 55 goals overall. Details

To play Real with under isn't the greatest thing in the world, but sometimes you have to go with the flow. I think that's the case today. Estudiantes' coach Txus Vidoretta clearly states that the way to match Real is the same as last season when they lost 71-65 and 72-57. Keep in mind that Real scored much more last season than this one, and that they crushed bigger rivals than these ones. Estudiantes have big defensive problems, especially with three pointers shot. Out of nine so far, they went over 160 only twice. No doubts from their side, they'll try to slow this down and play longer possession. Real? I think they'll invest more in the defense here because that's what they talked about after conceding 98 in Novgorod. The Madrid derby is a special game in basketball, it's a thing of prestige, and both sides are really motivated. I don't doubt Laso's guys' bigger defensive engagement, and at the same time, their rivals don't have the offensive power, so it makes sense to go with this bet. Details

I think these two teams are pretty different when it comes to quality. Hats off to the Browns for what they did so far, but I think their dreams about the playoffs will get a hard blow. Their offense is in crisis, that is, their quarterback is spending less time on the field and more on the bench (Jimmy Manziel), and the lack of self-confidence and focus results in mistakes. On the other side, Luck is brilliant, crushing all Manning's records, at least in the club, and leads the Colts towards the division title. Last Sunday, they crushed the Redskins at home by 49-27, and even had six touchdowns for 30+ yards, making them the first team to pull that off since 1996. The Colts got their win by +22, +20, +16, +27, +5, +7, +24, +27, so they regularly crush their opponents. I think they'll defeat the Browns tonight with at least one touchdown advantage. Details

Pesaro lose by 25 per game, while Venezia are a leading team with only one defeat, against Milano. That fact alone shows the direction of this pick, and the game. Pesaro struggled to defeat Orlando and Roma, and today, the big problem will be that Ross isn't ready, but will probably play, while they won't take chances with Myles. Without those two, Pesaro have no solutions in the offense, and Venezia are too experienced not to use that and keep the leading place of the league. Defense is Venezia's big weapon, and Pesaro should face a wall today. Details

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We deliberately did not cover their previous matches in the qualifiers and left that for here, since that was over a year ago, and also some details are different. Norway did win both matches (23-25, 18-30), but first things first. The first match in Oradea was an even one almost to the very end, with 22-22 at 57mins, and Romanians deserved a draw at least. The rematch four days later was a blowout, partly due to the outcome of the first match and partly since right wing Nechita did not play and Perianu was semi-fit. Most importantly, best Romanian player Cristina Neagu did not play in either of those matches, and she is crucial for this team. Norway on the other hand fielded their best setup, with Lunde on goal, Sulland and Edin on perimeter, all of which will not be on this EC.
The current situation favors Romania much more, as they have Cristina Neagu in peak form and much better than in 2010, when she was dubbed best in the world. They did great work in the preparation period and will be playing where they feel almost at home. You can rarely threaten Norway, but the fact is they lost their edge on offense. They lack elite perimeter players they had these past years, they have great pivots and wingers, and they lost a lot with goalie Lunde leaving, as she was the foundation of their success in the past decade. I expect a much closer match than the odds suggest, and Romania staying within the margin for handicap Details

Compared to yesterday the handicap margin went down by a point, but I see no cause for that. If you read the preview, you could have drawn your own conclusion about this match, but I'll give it a few lines too. Veroli were judged to be the worst team in the league even before the season started. They lost their best player prior to this match, Legion (20.9pts, 5.8rbs, 2.1a, 1.9stl), who crossed over to Trapani, while their last practice session was boycotted by their third best scorer and best rebound collector Wojciechowski (10.5 pts, 6.6rbs). What is there left for Veroli? American Shaw and many young guys who came in from 4th league Azzurro in order to get second league experience and improve. Wojciechowski might end up playing, but as money was behind the boycott, you be the judge of how motivated such a player can be. Veroli average 64.5 points per game, they lost Legion's 21 point, and possibly Wojciechowski's 10 as well. They showed how weak they are without Legion against Brescia last round, losing with -43 points. Ferentino lost their last four and are in a very good rhythm, and although their best player Thomas had certain issues, he's been training since Thursday and is ready to play. It's true that the only team to demolish Veroli at home were the mighty Verona, and Ferentino are not quite a powerhouse in away matches, but with Legion gone and Wojciechowski likely not to appear, I have to play this bet. Details

A very low margin having in mind the way both teams performed so far and the fact the game should be decided way before it ends. Kolding were a defense oriented team last season and built their success on that, but this season we're seeing a different team. They're doing much better on offense, confirmed by the fact that the only time they stayed below 30 goals in their last eight home matches was against Barcelona. All eight were ended with at least 54 goals. Kolding should not have any problems with the Turks today, and should get a comfortable lead by halftime which should allow for a calm second half, just like in Turkey where the game ended at 57. Kolding are playing a derby against Aalborg in two days, and I don't believe they'll go full throttle on defense in the finish of the game, which should allow Besiktas to score their allotment too. The Turks on the other hand lost their last chance of getting to the next stage after Wisla beat Barcelona yesterday. This makes their motivation very dubious, especially when running back on defense, and could contribute to quite a few easy goals for Kolding. The statistics also favor this bet, as Kolding have five overs in seven matches (53.3 goals), while Besiktas have four in seven (54.1). Since the match should be practically over after 30-40 minutes, we should see a more relaxed game in the finish, and a total of at least 55 goals. Details

While the national team break was going on in November, neither St.Gallen nor Sion worked on defensive too much. They conceded 23 goals total in the last two rounds (home team 7, guests 6). Extend that to previous games and the numbers are even worse. They were both efficient in the offensive, though.
Considering all that, I wasn't surprised that similar odds were offered for both under and over, and since that's the case, it would be a shame not to play on the option rich(er) with goals. Because St.Gallen are traditionally effective at home, they scored two goals at least in six out of eight games this fall, and I think they'll do it today, again. Considering the look of their defense, Sion should score at least one, which is enough for this bet to pass. Details

Any series must come to its end, and I think Banvit's 8-0 in Badirma this season ends today. In many of those eight matches they were hanging by a thread. Partizan managed to beat themselves, Galata lost in the last second, they were even with Eskisehir after three quarters, and had the same situation against TED Kolejliler. They perform at an average level, proven by their latest, rather decisive defeats against modest Selcuk and Asesoft. Their main perimeter player is also injured, and it remains to be seen whether Rowland will play, but that's not even a crucial factor for them. The crucial issue here is the fact Efes' lineup in the paint. Lasme, Bjelica and Šarić can parry Veremeenko, Davis and Dragičević, and therein lies the key to this game. Banvit beat many opponents carried by that trio, while Efes can easily guard them, so I have no fear here, as Ivković is a master of defending, and probably the best in Europe, next to Pascual, when it comes to defensive tactics. A few days ago he sent a junior player against an NBA player for Žalgiris and demolished the Lithuanians. Today they will be stronger, most likely reinforced by Janning, which means that the perimeter lineup of Draper, Balbay, Janning and Perperoglu can match anything Banvit's Mejia, Simmons, or Edge or Mutaf, try to play. Details

Two even teams fighting for high positions, both mostly satisfied with their results so far, West Ham in particular, as it's been a while since they started a season this well. This is also a third match in eight days for both, making it harder to run than usual. This has all the makings of a tough and close match in which it will me much easier to defend than charge ahead, and neither team would be unhappy with a point after all.
If that turns out to be the case, we can easily expect less work for the goalkeepers as well, and a focus on positional tactics in the middle of the pitch. West Ham will try to be more active and dangerous, while Swansea always play the same way in away matches, primarily not to concede a goal, and then do what they can on offense. West Ham gained a lot by bringing in forwards Sakh and Valencia, but neither of them is starting, and they just might remain benched as backup.
The home team's midfield lienup are not that creative to be able to go through the away's midfield easily and shift the focus to their side in order to dictate the rhythm of the game. The same goes for the other side, and a disjointed match would not come as a surprise. Swanse managed to avoid conceding a goal for six times this season, and played 0-0 away matches twice, while West Ham are far better at defending at home, and have conceded just two goals in their last five home matches, and six in all seven they played.
With all that in mind, it seems like a logical move to bet no more than two goals will be scored in the London duel, just like it happened the last three times these teams faced each other. West Ham won 2-0 and 1-0, and the outcome in Swansea was 0-0. Details

This morning the margin was 152, close to realistic. In the meantime, it grew to 156, and I don't see why. This will be a duel between two defensive teams. Oktjabr were offensively oriented at the beginning of the season, but when Bauermann came, that changed completely, and the results show it. Oktjabr have 155.8 points per game in this competition, and since the German coach came, the games ended with 135, 145, 151 and 152 points. They played two home games in the Eurocup, 61-59 against Partizan and 69-67 against the offensively oriented Hapoel.
Samara are limited offensively and have to base their game on the defense. Last weekend, they played a game at 200 points, but that was more because of Himki's game style. They played nine games in the VTB league, and only two (against Himki and Nymburk) went over this margin. In the others, they had 151 or less, even when they were crushed against Lokomotiv and CSKA, when they were 30 points behind by the half-time. Besides, this is a really important game, they're direct rivals for the playoffs, and that gives this game an extra meaning. I expect a big fight and a game that will end up plenty below this margin. Details

Since Miodrag Božović came to Lokomotiv, the team have been reborn. Considering that Lokomotiv have no obligations in Europe, ambitions are mentioned, but let's talk about that when we get there. Božović's team haven't lost the last ten games, and have everything it takes to go on like that. Terek are very strong at home, they haven't lost there for over a year, but recently, they had two defeats at home. The first one against Krasnodar wasn't that much of a surprise, but the one against Torpedo definitely was. That will definitely ruin Chechenian team's self-confidence, and they'll also have to play without three starting players today. The forward Lebedenko, the center back Komorowski and the back Utsyjev are out. Utsyev is also the captain. I don't see a reason to push Terek to a favorite role here, so I'll stand behind Lokomotiv who shouldn't lose this, in my opinion. What works for the guests here is that in the matches they played against each other, Lokomotiv haven't lost since 2008. They played ten games in that period, five in Grozni. Details