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I believe we'll see a relaxed, attractive match in Skoplje today, with no imperative for a victory. The away team are coming with a home win of 36-31 against Meškov, where they've proven they can score, but not defend against a team of Champions League level. They allowed 30 even at home against offensively poor Zagreb, in a 54 goal match. With half the team missing, Vardar still scored 26 against Metalurg's full defense. Today they're playing the last home game of the year in front of their home crowd, the coach said Karačić might play, and I expect some others who were missing against Metalurg as well, but that's actually not that important. There is no reason for this to get tough, and I expect it to go over 55. Details

I don't understand why Montpellier are playing a role of such a great favorite here. The book makers must have taken their respective spots in the table when coming up with the odds. Tourcing are bottom table, but they have done some good games home (Cannes, Paris, Tours) and got a point against Paris a week ago. There's absolutely nothing good about Montepellier at this point. They lost the last four matches, all in straight sets. Le Goff should not be on the team today once again, and even if he makes to the 12-player list, I don't see how he could make a difference. Montpellier are clearly in decline, receivers Hughes and Milkov are doing badly, with opposite Scheinder as h only good player on the team. The home team always seem to be the better choice when two teams in poor form meet, especially here since Tourcing do their best matches home. Home team's win is not a bad option either, but them getting two sets is too good a bet to be missed out on. Details

This margin is too high considering the importance of the match to both teams. Both Cholet and Bourg have, Cup games included, nine unders each in 12 matches at this margin. Cholet are coming to this match from losing to Reims, after which Buffard was very unhappy with the attitude of his players and their defense. Today this should be at the right level, as Buffard is aware that another loss would ruin all Cholet have achieved and put him as far away as possible from the Leader's Cup. For Bourg the match comes after seven losses in a row, they're next to last with a significant lag behind the first team out of the relegation zone. Far from it that they played their matches poorly, as they managed to limit Strasbourg and Limoges to under 80 points, Orleans to 76. Defense is their focus, they had the best 2nd league defense last season. Their start this season was burdened by injuries, which brought in some reinforcements but with Green and Toure leaving this is now a team very similar to last years. Both teams also have an important player injured on offense, for Bourg it's O`Basset, for Cholet it's Banks, and even if they somehow play, they're hardly be at their best game. The margin is very high for French basketball, and I expect this much closer to 150 points. Details

Estudiantes improved greatly and I expect them to keep the good games going. They had Bilbao on their knees away to lose by one point in the end, then beat Real, which gave them a boost of confidence. Also, Bircevic is back and the coach now has all the players at his disposal. Obradorio won 4 out of 5 home games, lost to Canarias convincingly, but we need perspective regarding those 4 wins. Bruesa and Manresa were horrible early in the season, just like Fuenlabrada, while they met Sevilla at Sevilla's worst hour. Estudiantes are a completely different thing and this will be a great test for them. The visitors won both games here last season and have what it takes to stand up to Obradorio. Vidoretta proved to have the tactics for defending Corbacho and I expect this game to be settled in the two final minutes. Estudiantes' defense improved greatly, while Obradorio scored over 76 points only against Sevilla in the last 6 games. It's another reason why I see the visitors as the favorite. Details

Cordoba finally managed to record a win after 13 rounds without a single win to immediately become the favorite in the Levante game. Why? I truly don't know. This is, in my opinion, at least a close match. I think the visitors are even closer to winning. Cordoba might not be as bad, but one win over Bilbao away immediately made the bookmakers think highly of them. Granted, we should not underestimate the effect a win can have on the team, but we shouldn't overestimate it either. Levante are doing very well since Alcaraz took over and rarely lose their games. They lost only once in the last 6 rounds despite meeting some teams much tougher than Cordoba (Valencia and Sevilla). The visitors have all the players to count on today, expect for one that is not important. I think Levante might even win today, but given the great odds we have here, I will opt for the Asian +0.25 handicap. Half the bet is void in case the game ends as a draw, half is successful. It will be entirely successful if the visitors win. Details

Nancy and Dijon's games are always a great fight and I expect a great fight today. Dijon have been particularly efficient lately, but defense-wise nowhere near their usual level, which resulted in three defeats and one win. They recorded the one win only because the opponents made too many mistakes. Borg said that is not way to play basketball and that things need to change since defense is what lead them towards success the last few seasons. Dijon then went on to Italy to concede almost 89 points, but they already secure a spot in Eurocup second stage, which is why Borg reshuffled the team. I expect them to do their best today and to record more usual numbers.

There is no other way for Dijon to win this away game. Nancy are an extremely tough and aggressive team home, bringing that aggression to the next level lately. Their last 5 home games ended with 145 points or less and I expect the same to happen today. Nancy and Dijon played two preseason games (134 and 137 points), but Nancy didn't have their key defense figure Pietrus on the team back then. These two teams played two games here last season which ended at 127 and 129 points. Besides, the Leader's Cup race is well underway and these two teams are on the same record (6-5). That makes this an even more important game. I expect it to finish at 140 points or less. Details

Very good odds considering Reims had three overs in a row, Evian had two, and four of their last six matches were overs too. Their league averages are 2.71 and 2.75.
As I mentioned in the preview, the home team are playing very offensively right now and their front four players don't contribute much to defense. They also have some issues regarding goalkeepers and are missing Devaux in the middle who gave them balance. The home team have shored up their defense a bit lately, but it remains their weak point. Even if they get pressured into their own half (which they certainly won't) they can always score through the most efficient set piece executor in Europe, at least statistically, Wass. Details

As the preview said, after a great start to the season, this Kastela team seem a bit worn out now. They lost four of their last five matches, while Alkar are in an opposite situation winning four of their last five. There is no reason to hide that the main reason for betting against Kastela, apart from poorer form, is the fact they're missing Rančić, their best player. This is insider info, which we got despite there being no official confirmation from the team, naturally, but he played injured last round. Kastela lost away against awful Brod, and Kvarner from Rijeka also proved that Kastela's home court is not impervious either. Compared to previous seasons, Alkar are no longer an exclusively home focused team, they won three of their four away matches, with Osijek by 17 points as one of those and the strongest team of the league, Zagreb, in a match they controlled the entire time. They also beat Brod by 21 point, where Kastela lost the last round match. Alkar also have more quality, and no absences apart from Žitak. They have better momentum, and the home team are missing their best player and scorer. That's sufficient for me to play this bet. Details

Admira and Wolfsberg are the two teams that look forward to the winter break the most. Admira are injury-hit and Wolfsberger struggle with fatigue and lack of choice for the line-up, which caused unsuccessful games for both teams as the first part of the season is coming to its send. Admira have not recorded a win in the last 10 rounds, the visitors in seven, meaning neither should hold back today.
It's the last game of the year and both teams are expected to try and win. A lot of attempts and goals are expected in that case. Besides, their first two head-to-head games this season ended with a lot of goals. Wolfsbergen won both: 4-1 and 2-1.
Admira scored less goals than any other team in the league so far, but that means nothing when they want to win badly. Coach Knaller's team would start doing horribly after conceding a goal, as their previous games prove. Given the odds, a good choice wold be three or more goals in total, especially because only one out of their last 6 h2h games finished with a total of less than three goals. Details

I was in a dilemma as to what to pick in this duel. The home team are highly motivated and a typical home team, who calculated (or their coach did) that in case they win this match they have a 90% chance (interestingly :) ) to get among the top 8 teams at the end of autumn, automatically getting to the playoff in the Spanish cup, so they need this victory. Santiago on the other hand played a home match against Inter Movistar in the King's Cup this week, which certainly did not help their shape for today. Both teams are 'under' teams so to speak, limited in offensive abilities, but I believe Peniscola are much more motivated to score and that they will charge right away. Santiago scored a win at home last weekend against the 'Fishermen' from Burela, and are a bit more relaxed prior to Valencia. However, they are far from safe in terms of relegation, their already shallow roster is having a hard time handling this rhythm. This is why, instead of the under for this match, and Peniscola leading at halftime, I picked home team's handicap, which I'm hoping they'll cover. Of course, a clean win is also good combo material, but I leave the choice to you. Details

First head-to-head game between these teams ended well under 50 goals, but Dvorsek was still in charge at Zagreb back then. Ever since Vujovic took over, Zagreb are a defense oriented team that recorded only 3 overs in the last 16 games. All three of those ended with 61 goals - Kiel, Vardar, and Nexe. None of them can be compared with this game, since all were either Champions League or with less focus on Zagreb's part for different reasons. Zagreb never recorded a win in Presov, the team is motivated, Champions League is done for this year, and Zagreb will be very motivated to win after beating PSG last game. Slovakian team are still regarded as typically recording overs, but since David took over, their defense improved. They need points to stay in the race for the Final Four and I don't think this will end close to 60 goals. Details

One gets the impression that Poland barely made it to the main stage and do not deserve to be here based on performance. They had good periods against the Russians, with Poland's two best offensive players Kudlacz and Wojtas taking advantage of Russians' biggest problem, the 'black holes' in their performance, which manifested here as just two goals in the last ten minutes. In their previous two matches Poland lost to Spain by -7 and to Hungary -6, while it could have been more as Hungary held a 10 goal lead midway through the match. Denmark are charging for victory, and are also traditionally a bad match-up for Poland as the Danes won all three previous matches, with the last one at the WC being the closest one, by just 4 goals. Poland now have a weaker team compared to that match, missing perimeter players and with changes on one wing, as well as goalies with few saves. This led selector Rasmussen to switch out his first goalie Gapska and bring in a new goalkeeper to the team prior to the second stage. With a serious attitude and full focus throughout the match, the way Scandinavians usually do, the realistic margin is two or three goals higher than the one set for this handicap. Details

Wojtas is the second best scorer on the Polish team, having taken the second greatest number of shots. She's averaging 5 goals and 9 shots per game, 10-for-15 from the nine-meter line. She scored 4 goals out of 11 shots (3-for-9 from the nine-meter line) as Poland played Denmark in 2013 WC for the bronze medal. She is nowhere near those kind of performances, and more importantly, Denmark are the opponent who don't let back players do well. They limited Norway to only five goals from this position despite losing. Finally, Wojtas is from Larvik, just like the Danish goal keeper Toft, which means Toft knows her very well and normally saves a lot of shots from the nine-meter line. Wojtas is averaging 4 goals per game at Larvik in Champions League, which is where this margin should be set. Details

The home arena might make the home team favorite to some extent, but I think this margin is set too high. They went over it only in the home game to AEK in the season opener and have not scored more than 73 points in any of the following 8 games. They were under in all three Cup games as well, managing to score 76 against a team from lower division. When playing top league Trikala and Apollon, they scored 56 and 64. Panelefsiniakos' stats are not as one-sided, but we need to draw a comparison between games where the team was lead by Skarafigas those when Kousteris was in charge. Ever since Koustenis took over, the visitors put a lot more focus on defense, which shows. They conceded over this margin only to fast-paced Rethymno (80), while limiting the opponents to less 72 points or less in the four remaining games (one of which was away game with PAOK, 76). This is a direct clash of teams that should fight for playoffs, I expect a great fight and the visiting team under this margin. Details

Osijek are a team that wins points mostly on account of their physical strength, when they get a chance for it. And the chance can hardly be better than Lokomotiva, who will be without half their squad today. Unlike Osijek, who have quite an experienced players at their disposal, Lokomtiva will have to do with youngsters who won't be able to fight back if Osijek play an aggressive game. This is the best opportunity Osijek will have in a while for getting the three points. Lokomotiva won 4-1 here last summer, but two scorers and a number of other players left since. They beat Osijek in Zagreb too, but 5 of Lokomotiva's players from that match are no longer at the club. That changes things today, making the previous head-to-head matches completely irrelevant. Details