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The margin may not be wrong by much, but it's hard to reach against the Lions defense even for much better running backs than Matt Asiata. The Detroit crew allows just 62.8 ground yards, and the number drops to just 45.0 in their last five matches. In their victories against the Bears and Bucks the allowed just 39 yards in total, while Forte and Martin are worlds apart from Asiata. The Lions do so well against rushes that opponents give up on such plays after the first few attempts and turn to passing. The bet is made even stronger by the statement by coach Zimmer who said he wants Ben Tate to carry more, which directly means less work for Asiata. Details

Where else can you find an over bet in Portugal than with teams whose matches see most goals, and Maritimo and Estoril are the only in Portugal to average above 3.00. Apart from statistics, this pick is also based on the game of both teams and the fact their offense is stronger than defense. The fact they're unhappy with their ranking helps too, as it will push them to look for a win since both planned to fight for Europe, not stagnate in the lower part of the ranking ladder. Estoril only managed to avoid conceding a goal in their past round game, while they scored in all 12 matches so far. Maritimo have no problem scoring either, at least not to Madeira, where they scored 13 times in five matches, and they also have one of the best scorers in the league this season. Estoril played in Greece on Thursday, and after both of their Euroean away matches they played championship matches with at least four goals. I expect at least three today, especially since they're missing two defenders, one of them a standard starter. Both previous matches at Madeira, since Estoril came back to the first league, ended with both scoring and 3+, so they should keep the tradition, but I'll take the regular over since both scoring 3+ pays only slightly better. Details

Last week in a Hagen - Telekom pick I that when Hagen, Telekom, Göttingen and Bayern play each other, it's worth playing the over regardless of the margin being around 170 points. The schedule pitted Hagen against another run'n'gun team today, Göttingen, and I think it'd be a shame to miss this bet, although the margin is above 170, as expected. Hagen is an open book, nobody in the Bundesliga plays the way they do with pure run'n'gun and many short possessions, with an average of 180 points total in their home matches. Göttingen are their closest copy, a team with no real center, and even Hagen's coach say they play a similar team. Due to the similar style of both teams, one can expect 10-15 more possessions than usual, which is REALLY a lot by European standards. It would make no sense to write this pick if one did not expect the match to go over the 180 point margin, which seems perfectly realistic in light of all of the above. Details

Rashard Jennings played his first season in the Giants' shirt decently, but I'm sure he would have left a much better impression if the injuries didn't catch him. In the games against the Jaguars, he got an ankle injury that stopped him from practicing much last week, and that resulted with only 5 rushing yards against the Titans. Over the week, there's been a lot of talk about the volume of carries he gets, and supposedly, the coach Coughlin is still not ready to give him the full responsibility, especially when Andre Williams has been playing better. Some reports say the two of them will split the numbers of carries, which means Jennings will get about ten, and I think the Redskins' defense whose biggest strength is stopping the ground game, is good enough to leave him under this margin. Details

Even though another player might show to be a better option (Harry Douglas), I'll be conservative here and go for a safer bet. According to the latest info, Julio Jones can barely run, so I doubt he'll be anything more than a bait, if he plays at ll. That's where Roddy White comes up, he was the Falcons' first receiver until Jones showed up, and tonight, he has the chance to prove he's still capable of playing that role. He had lots of injuries this season, so his stat aren't as good as in the previous years, but he still ended four out of the last six games with at least 72 receving yards. In that period, he caught at least five balls, and considering Jones's start, I think he'll have enough chances to run over this margin against the shaky Steelers' defense. Details

Even though it was written the last, this pick might have the biggest value, at least of the ones I wrote. On Thursday, Eddie Lacy said his hip was a bit better, but there are still some question marks. He'll supposedly try to play tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if the conservative medical staff suggests to the coach not to use him if he doesn't feel his best. Besides, according to the latest info, the Packers want to split the burden between him and Starks in Buffalo, so he might be limited to 13-15 rushing yards attempts, and considering he will face the fifth best defense in stopping ground game (99 y/g), this pick seems pretty good, especially considering that this season, he stayed under in nine out of 13 games. Details

Hats off to Modena for six wins in a row, and everything they did so far, but they're not a mega-team that will keep winning forever, especially in a league as evened out as the Italian. Their positive series has to end sooner or later, and the possibility that it will happen tonight in the away game against one of the direct rivals for the top of the league is definitely not to be ignored. The odds on Conegliano's win - I think they're better than Modena's, regardless of the current league table state - simply looks too good to be ignored, and against a team assembled for this season (Glass, De Gennaro, Adams, Ozsoy, Nikolova...), nobody can be a favorite in PalaVerde arena in front of 5 000 fans, even if they come to Treviso as current leader of the championship. The home team are progressing slowly, but steadily, and mostly win lately, getting closer to that form they had at the season beginning. In general, a logical way things to happen in the following weeks is that Conegliano start rising, and Modena start falling, and I think that will start happening with this game, so this bet is worth taking. Details

Lemgo's stats shows only games with many goals, but such performance got them next to the bottom ranked and got coach Pfannenschmidt fired. I doubt Kehrmann will ask for a run and gun game in his premiere, despite that being the team's style, as circumstances are different now. In their five matches against top teams, Flensburg, Kiel, Magdeburg and Göppingen, Lemgo stayed below this margin, playing at 70 goals only at Löwen, but that game came after a +17 victory at Minden, and everyone was relaxed. They're going to Hamburg with a new coach, in a dramatic situation and seven consecutive defeats, the last one of those a 25-24 against Friesenheim, the new team in the league. Fists are tighter, defense way more important, every possession valued. Hamburg's situation also supports this pick. They were way under the 57.5 margin in their last four matches, three of which were home games against Bergischer, Balingen and Kristianstad, with one away vs Flensburg. Their right back Pfahl got injured against Flensburg, he was one of their top offensive options and a pivotal point of their offense but will now be out for the rest of the year. Hamburg have no other leftie there, and have to make do with righthanded players unless they produce a youth from their junior selection. Coach Gaudin's righthanded options are also drastically reduced as he is down to 4 backs; Hens, Mahé, Hanisch and Simici. They're also missing first pivot Toft Hansen, also the only one in his position, and subbed for by all-rounder Flohr. Without Toft Hansen and Pfahl their offense is very weak and they'll have to shift a lot to defense, where they can put together a good block with Dominiković and Flohr, and Bitter is also reliable. All this makes it hard for me to see this as a 60 goal game. Details

Guimarães got a point on the away game against Braga, but also five players who will today be out either because of the cards or the injuries. They're still the third, but I don't see them staying there in the second part of the season, or any place leading to Europe because we can expect them to start falling today, and I'd say that had already started because the last two wins were really tough. Today, besides the decent opponent, they also have to cover for the big number of absences, and the coach Rui Vitori, the miracle maker, won't be helped with the announced sales of the players in January. I'd take Rio Ave here even without the absences in the home team, even though their effect isn't as good as in the previous seasons, when they got more points away than at home, but they're not that bad either, so I can't hold against them the defeat against three out of four strongest teams in the League. Guimarães isn't one of those despite their high placement. Compared to the game against Aalborg, two center backs will be back, they don't have the lineup problems like the home team do. Home team won't be able to count on players who scored over half of their goals. To keep it short, Guimarães aren't better than Rio Ave even when they're complete, and today, they miss two important players from each line, and the goalie position isn't really stable, either. So, Rio Ave have to get point(s) here. Details

As the guest coach says, I expect a chess match. That's what the first one was, with 43 goals. I don't think there'll be many more today because this is one of the most important games in the relegation battle. It'll be a duel of offensively limited teams who have about 25 goals per game this season, and there were even a few times when they fell apart, they could have scored more, if any kind of defense stuck it to the end. Another plus for this bet is that Kauffman should be ready, he's definitely the best scorer in the home team, a player who usually ends his games close to the double-digit numbers of goals scored. Without him in the right form, Aarau have lots of offensive problems. Stafa is bad in front of the opponent's goal no matter what. With this situation, the team unders seem to be very good options, too. Details

Feyenoord have been a tricky pick this season - like against Cambuur and Zwolle. However, you have to be persistent when betting, so we'll try the follow the "third time's a charm" logic. We'll bet against the Rotterdam club now, and if they prove us wrong, we'll just admit their superiority.
Like the first two times, no sense in negating anything positive Feyenoord did, but what stands out is coach Rutten's nervous answer on a press conference. He was asked why he used the strongest lineup for an irrelevant game against Standard in the European League, when he knew he'll face AZ, PSV and Breda within eight days in the championship, and wins in those games would take them to the second place.
Either way, Feyenoord can join the fight for the champion title, and that's definitely bigger than the first place in the European League, which they won't get anyway, with their minimum chances. Rutten was angry and claimed they ask him that after every European game, but that actually confirms his fear of mistakes, of fatigue and exhaustion with his players which can definitely have a negative impact against AZ, who haven't conceded a goal in four games and won all four.
But, Alkmaar guests have more pluses and optimism for De Kuip. They're one of the best teams in the league who had absence issues at the beginning of the season, and problems with the choice of the coach. But, with those problems solved, AZ became a great rival in the championship. And a bit more statistics, Feyenoord lost three games at home, AZ won five out of seven away games, and in the last seven away games in the league against Feyenoord, they have three wins, two ties and defeats 1-3 and 1-0. The state of things before this match is - we have two teams in a great form and a great mood, and I don't see an obvious win for either, but the pick that AZ won't lose with two ore more difference is a good one. So, any Feyenoord's win with a goal difference or any positive results for the guests make this pick a success. Details

In normal circumstances, these would be normal odds, but the circumstances are definitely not normal. Chalon will play with a really young team today, Choulet will have ten players available, five of which are 20 years old or younger. To make things complicated, the biggest problems are in the back line, the young guys will organize the game against the best defense of the league, and I doubt they'll be able to resist the pressure Strasbourg create. Chalon won't have Rich or Ireland, both main point guards, Tchicamboud left to Limoges, and if we count the center Dawson, this quarter scored over 40 points and almost 10 assists per game, with Dawson's ten jumps per game. Chalon are really weakened and I don't see how they can stand up to the best team of the league right now. They played great defense for 30 minutes against Limoges, but as expected, couldn't do it till the end, and ended up with 15 convincing points difference. I expect a double-digited win today, too, Collet's taking this game carefully, which is the most important in situations like these. No need to talk about Strasbourg's quality, they won 20 out of 23 official games this season, they got all 10 wins in the championship with at least seven points difference. Choulet said in an interview this week that without Rich, their chances are 30-1, and he's aware of the difficulty of this task, so all things considered, this should be a one way street... Details

Frankfurt lead by coach Gordon Herbert have been a synonym for firm basketball for a few seasons, the defensive style, and that hasn't changed now. They score 73 points per game, conceded about as much, and despite all the injuries, they're decent. Right now, they have 5 wins in a row in all the competitions, and they conceded over 63 points only once, 72 against Braunschweig. They're playing against Oldenburg today, who showed what kind of defense they can play a few days ago. They left Spirou in Belgium at 62 points, scored 75. No doubt the guests have better offensive potential than the home team, but in the duels against defensively oriented teams, Oldenburg aren't playing nice basketball. Especially not when Frankfurt and Oldenburg face each other. In the last four seasons, they played eight times and the game never ended over 142 points, it went over 140 margin only once. In the last four duels, the points total was 134, 135, 128, and 123. In those matches, the coaches were Herbert and Machowski who are leading their teams today, as well. Details

The odds set for Groningen and Vitesse are pretty unexpected because the guests are the favorites, despite being perhaps the biggest disappointment of the 1st Dutch league. Vitesse have four points less than the home team, haven't defeated anyone in six rounds, and lost five out of seven away games, conceding 26 goals in 15 games.
At the same time, Groningen weren't defeated in all seven home games, and they also defeated Ajax and had a tie against PSV. They confirmed their home-team status for years, so it's really tough to figure out why Vitesse would be a favorite here. Let's leave that to the bookmakers, maybe luck or big numbers law will help them, or they know something us mere mortals don't, but I don't have doubts betting on Groningen not losing today.
Announced lineups show that it's easier to cover the defender Hateboer and the forward Hoesen's absences for Groningen, than the midfielder Propper for Vitesse, and the first goalie Velthuzien and the right back Wallace. The home team have the psychological momentum on their side, too, they outplayed and defeated the strong Twente in an away game two rounds ago, ending their 29 away games with no defeat streak.
Groningen are calmer and tactically better, they know how to play for the result, while Vitesse are adventurists who like to play for all or nothing, so sometimes they don't know how to save two goals advantage because they want to look nice and artistic. Add to that three wins by Groningen in the last three games against Vitesse, and we're almost tempted to play a clear "one" today. But, let's stay careful and play a double chance on Groningen and for a higher stake.
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Panko and Baron have company on offense, as Burtt, the American formerly of Stelmet, is anything but defensively strong. With him on board Fuenlabrada should be stronger on offense, with an extra angle, which directly influences Panko and Baron since defenses will no longer focus on them. Much has been said about Laboral Kutxa as they're in a great rhythm, especially at home where they recently scored 93 to Valencia, 84 to Canarias, 89 to Olympiacos. They went under 82 only once in the past six games, in the blowout at Valencia. The departure of Perkins and James signing in is a bonus for offense but no help on defense, as Perkins is a better player defensively and as a play maker, while James is a scoring guard, and this will influence the way Kutxa play. It should be noted that Kutxa have improved their defense and are playing much better since Navarro took over and dubious Americans left, and this is why the stake is lower. The key for this pick is how much they allow Fuenlabrada to score, but as they're coming after venting steam in Valencia and securing Top 16, while Fuenlabrada have three Americans who score 20 per game who will thrive in Kutxa's favorite, fast paced game, this should be covered. Details

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