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Paris are a weird little thing, capable of anything, both good and bad. They didn't prove to be pretty reliable in Europe. A win against Bešiktaš last week isn't a measure because this team from Istanbul are in a tough period, when they concede 90-100 against anyone. Karšiyaka scored over 100 in the first round against them. Today's match will be much firmer and more competitive. I favor the guests, and I think they can win this, but what I'll go for is Paris under 80 points. Just in Europe, they scored it in three out of 12 matches, and Karšiyaka conceded over that only in two, and those were irrelevant, by the end of the first part against Stelmet and Kuban. They never conceded over that in the away matches in Europe this season, and in the league away matches, they conceded over that only once, against Darušafaka (66-82).
Looking at the matchup, it's easy to see that Karšiyaka have only the best defensive players that will cover the most efficient Parisians, so Strawberry will probably guard Schilb, and Palacios Ford. Both are great in the defense, and Karšiyaka can gain a lot from that. Details

Ever since former coach Lambert left and his assistants Giorgutti and Davanel took over, Saint-Quantin finally managed to live up to the expectations. They won 4 out of 5 games, recording their only defeat to top table Hyeres and most importantly, Saint-Quentin do very well home, having won 5 out of the 7 home games this season. They won all three home games since the change in leadership (Nantes by 7 goals, Hyeres by 16, and Poitiers by 13). Fos knocked out top-tier Pau Orthez ten days ago and you must be wondering by would I bet against them. For a number of reasons. First of all, Pau clearly underrated their opponents. Secondly, Fos are much better home (won 6 out of the last 8 games, Cup included). Thirdly, Fos lost all seven league games away, having finished under this margin in the first away game at Poitiers only. And lastly, Fos have only some 7 or 8 players to count on and this is their 4th match in 11 days... Details

Aron Palmarsson, as one of the best players in the world, has complete freedom with the coach Kristjansson. Even when he wasn't completely ready, and when his eye was making troubles at the beginning of the tournament, Palmarsson had 7/11 against Algeria, 4/12 against the frightening Swedish defense. He said he's 100% ready before this match, and I expect him to be even better. Without him, Iceland can hardly win. In a match like this one, I expect Palmarsson to have over 10 shots, which should be more than enough to score four goals at least, especially because Omeyer is still not up to the level expected of him. Details

I don't see why Mladost is so underestimated and I see a nice value in betting that they'll take the first set. They were a better team in the first match, won 3-2, and they have their chances in Novi Sad. Vojvodina are a young team, they succumbed to the pressure in the first match, and that pressure is only going to be bigger today. It's true they play better in front of their own fans, but judging by the first match, Mladost have the game to jeopardize them. Don't forget that they'll be without their first opposite Luburić today, who's objectively their best forward, and he'll be covered by Nadaždanin. It means most of the offensive actions will go through the receivers Stanković and Katić, and Brčaci showed they can match them with the block. All in all, I don't think Vojvodina are this much of a favorite, and I'd even dare to say this is a mistake by the bookmakers. Details

A match between the teams whose offenses are a lot better than their defenses. I probably don't have to explain that Ivory Coast can go over this margin themselves, even against stronger teams than Guinea, but suffice it to say that Kalou-Toure-Gervinho-Bony are there, but the fact is that the defense made disastrous mistakes in the qualifications, and even though Renard paid attention to it, we can't expect it to start functioning overnight. They defended themselves twice in a year and a half, against Cameroon when both were fine with 0-0, and last Sunday against Nigerian B-team. Guinea didn't score a goal once in two years, and they played against Algeria, Egypt, Mali, twice against Ghana, (and if I recall well, we had a bet where Ghana was going to score), and Senegal. They're without their first scorer Soumah, but he's not the first scorer because of his quality, but because he's fast and fits well into Dussuyer's counter attack tactics. Yattara is similar, and I think he'll be a decent replacement. A friendly match from 2012 ended 0-0, but three competition matches before that went to over. The last time they faced each other on AFCON (2008), the Ivory Coast won 5-0. Details

Czech Republic are not displaying great offense potential so far, having gone over this margin only 4 times in the last 17 games (friendly matches included). Out of the 4, one was the insignificant EC match with Denmark (scored 29 and lost), the second one in which they scored 20 by half time and 33 in total against Serbia, the third one recently against Macedonia in the qualifier home (27) and the final one here against the French (27). They managed to score that many only because the French goal keepers did horribly. The key player at CzR is Jicha, who lost 7 kilos, with the only other player at the level this game demands being Horak. Horak struggled with injuries for the most part of the season, just like Jicha. Even before Jicha's struggles, CzR's defense looked horrible in qualifying games with Germany. This is a very important game against the angry and motivated Egypt, who will have a lot of fan support. Their defense is tough and won't leave the Czech back players with much room. Egypt have never gone over this margin at the African championship, they never conceded more than 23 goals at preparation tournament ahead of this WC, and the team that limited Croatia at the last WC. All the prerequisites for this bet are met tough and aggressive Egxptian defense, the fans, and the importance of the game. The winner would basically secured round of 16. Good choice besides this one is the first half under at the Czechs (13.5 with some bookies) and the total under. Details

It's interesting to see the results of this year's World League. From 13 matches played, only three went under this margin, and one was where Serbia faced Spain, then one between Croatia and Turkey, and one between Hungary and Slovakia. It's obvious why - the pool is five meters shorter, which makes the game more dynamic and faster. The Russians met Serbia in the fight for the final tournament unexpectedly, but they're aware they're far below Serbia's quality, and Serbia are a favorite here, even though they're far from their best lineup. The Serbian offense was never a problem, they proved it in Germany, and the defense weren't brilliant there, they conceded nine goals in three quarters of the match. Russia defeated that same Germany at home, and with a win in Spain, they proved their progress offensively, too, because it's not easy to score 14 goals against Spain in an away match. The previous three matches between Russia and Serbia ended at 25, 21, and 20 goals, and now the Russians are a bit better, and the Serbian team are rejuvenated, and even more importantly compared to those matches - the pool is shorter. The game is played for the first place on paper, but there should be plenty of efficiency. Details

The first day offered a lot of surprises, but I'm convinced that Nara won't continue her streak today. I saw all of her matches in the last tournament and it feels like she's here just to collect the check for the first round. She was clearly going all in in the third set with Brengle. Moving well and defense weren't a good option because of the injury so she went on trying to fire winner after one of two shots. Brengle started playing a more clever game after having a break opportunity at 3-3 and took advantage of Nara's injury. Radwanska failed in Sydney after tying wins over Serbena and Cornet. Muguruza then used her bad day to beat her, which is another reason for this bet. Radwanska is always good in Australia and Nara could not have met a tougher opponent. She's consistent, moves greatly and will be looking for that extra shot throughout the match. Nara is not completely fit and ready and since Radwanska covered this handicap last season convincingly against Nara, who was healthy back then, she should not be having any trouble in doing so today. Details

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I don't see any reason for this to be considered a close match. Granted, Mirjana could take initiative, forcing Smitkova to go against her style and into defense, if she was ready, which is not the case. The last round proved that the leg injury is bothering her and liming her movements. She forfeited a match one week ago preemptively, but I don't believe she'll be doing her best today. When adding the really bad serving in that match, her chances are next to none. Sitkova left a good impression here. Kvitova was expected to sweep the floor with her, but Teresa managed to put up a good fight. The good quality first serve encouraged her and she managed to win a break. Lack of experience and focus are the only two reasons Smitkova didn't get at least a set. Smitkova's serving is better and she is capable of outplaying this Lucic in rallies to cover this low-set handicap. Details

I've talked about the importance of mental state in singles matches so many times. Petkovic clearly has problems early in the season, Australia has never been her favorite continent, especially when it comes to injuries. She was unable to explain the two defeats at season start, which is very worrying. Brengle is playing the best tennis of her carrier, having proved this might be her year. All the tough situations she managed to get out of proved she's very strong in the head. We have a troubled player on the one fans and someone who's displayed a lot of good things on the other. Brengle, in my opinion, is not as great an underdog as the odds suggest. She has the game that can stand up to Petkovic, who is doing badly when not completely focused. Details

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I already wrote on tip on Dodig this season, it was also a handicap, but against Berrer in Doha. Let me just repeat some things I said back then. Dodig had a horrible 2014 caused by back injury struggles. He didn't play for 3 months and the only thing I managed to detect in the first few matches of the season is that the back problems are a thing of the past. Like that, Dodig is a Top 50 player and I have no doubt that is where he'll finish at season's end. He lost only 4 service points against Safwat, beat Berrer easily and lost the Seppi. But, he's never done well against Seppi. His level in Doha was good and he wants to start recording good results to forget about the bad 2014. He's trying and what I like most about him, always tries his absolute best. He's not underestimating anyone and that is the key reason I believe in his win today.
I saw Souza in some 20 matches last season, and the Croat is definitely better quality. He will have less break opportunities than Dodig. It's possible he'll be close in one set, but he 'crazy' and doesn't have consistency at all. When Dodig breaks his spirit, things will be settles. Dodig is better in al aspects of the game and always does better on this surface. I'm sure the handicap will be covered even if Dodig loses a set, but I think he won't. For those of you not into handicaps, a normal win at Dodig is for 7-8/10 in my opinion. Details

Isner is one of the few top players that prefers playing matches one week before the Grand Slam. He's always pointing out that the rhythm the matches give him is very important. He skipped Auckland this time because he's made some changes to his plans and stepped in as an understudy at Hopman Cup. He's struggled a lot in the heat and ended up cancelling due to fatigue. Maybe that was the best choice, given his performances in Perth. Wang got a day off, which is important since he's not young anymore. He used to be the greatest Asian player and a great talent, but the injuries stopped him. He's got no reason to fear Isner. American's service is tough, but he will have a lot of problems with Wang's low shots. Wang managed to beat Karlovic at US Open a few years back. Wang to get a set is a good choice too, but I've decided on games over because it's Isner we're talking about here. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out successful in three sets. Details

The odds at Chang are constantly dropping. They may not the kind of value from the beginning, but I think it's still good. Chang is much better than his ranking suggests and she will prove it if she manages to stay healthy. She good, aggressive, knows when to stop, and when to go on the net. This is pick for her and against Zheng, who is in who knows what kind of a shape. She might be retiring this season, is not playing as many tournaments as before and that says it all. Chang has a great shot at recording a Grand Slam win against the player who is very close to ending her carrier. The prerequisites are there and I'm convinced she can at least get a set. Details