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When thinking about the odds that could be set for this match, I could never have imagined Lorenzi would end up being such a heavy favorite and there are a few reasons for it. First of all, Falla does well in these conditions. He would be happy just when knowing that he is to play at this altitude. Even when he wasn't a Top 100 player he would be the favorite both in Bogota ATP tournament and challengers against many Top 50 players. Secondly, Lorenzi's game is horrible, which is particularity significant now that he switched to clay. He barely managed to beat Lama in Bucaramanga and I thought that he might have just had a bad day. But, he went on to play Melzer the next round and lose and then came to Quito to meet a player who never won a set in their head-to-head matches and instead of making amends and restoring confidence by winning easily, he barely managed to win, after having to save a match point. Lama, Melzer, and Menendez cannot be compared to Falla in these conditions. Falla is better than all three. I think this is a close match with 50-50 chance and the Colombian maybe having the upper hand because of the conditions and the way he played 2nd and 3rd set against Souza, who I think is much more dangerous in these conditions. Also, the only h2h match Falla won was a straight sets 7-6 6-1 win. That happened in Bucamaranga that is also known for high altitude and tough conditions. Details

Zalgiris are a team who can match Zvezda in athleticism and rebounding, as well as Marjanović in the paint and parry them in many areas. Since Zalgiris are at the same time the biggest under team of all the 16 teams in this stage of the Euroleague, it's hard to expect a game at over 150 points. Zvezda base everything on defense, there is nothing new about that and it's widely known. Their defense is led by Lazić and Kalinić, Jović missing is a minus in that segment, but Blažič and Jenkins are quality guards as well. As Zalgiris are far from great on offense and have more workers than artists, with the exception of Andersons, this game simply lacks the potential to go to a high score. Looking at the Top 16 statistics, Zalgiris have three games under 140 points, one at 147 against offensive Galata and 161 against Barca, who scored 89 against them and are irrelevant for this matchup. Zvezda have two unders (Maccabi 145 at Maccabija and 139 with Galata), and overs against Real (151), Barca (169) and last week demolishing Alba (86:69). Zalgiris only once went over 72 in away games (vs Sassari who play no defense), and since they're defensively strong (took over 80 only against Sassari and Barca), I doubt anyone can go over 80 here. It would be much more realistic to expect someone to stay at 60-65, which will do for an overall under. That bet is also supported by the fact Marjanović and Williams, key offense players for Zvezda, are in much worse form than they were in the first part of the season. In closing, we should note that Zvezda played over on this margin in three of their eight games, against attractive Spanish teams Kutxa and Real, and in the aforementioned demolition of Alba. Details

A lot points towards Sijsling winning here, but +2.5 is a fine safety indoors. Ever since the tournament started some players spoke of how tired since Australia they are. Troicki is a good example, struggling against tricky indoors players and barely winning in the end, despite great motivation. I don't know if the same applies to Mannarino, who also played a lot in Australia, ending up in the hospital as well. Now he faces his first indoors match of the season, against an opponent that's rearing to go. Sijsling has been in crisis for a long time but these are conditions he likes. Indoors is where he can do work. Next week he is in Rotterdam, defending a lot of points, and he might get some pressure off here. He served very well in the first round, and the head to head score is very important here. The Dutch player decisively won all three previous matches, never losing more than three games per set. Last year in Madrid they had 5/12 in break points on quick clay, then a year before 5/7 in break points. In both of those he allowed only one chance on returns. Since the Frenchman's strongest suit is the tricky game he plays with low balls, this obviously doesn't fly against Sijsling. I personally played on the Dutch to win, 2-0 in sets, but this is definitely a safer version. Details

This is a classic bet when it comes to de Schepper, and although Monfils is undoubtedly the better player here, I think it has to be taken at these odds. Even more so because Monfils is a goofy one, and although he is the title defender here, he often enters a tournament a beet sluggishly. De Schepper is a steady one on the other hand, and will undoubtedly rely on his excellent serve, as he did against Ilhan in the first round (getting in 77% of his first serve). If he repeats the performance, Monfils will have a tough job in one of the faster indoors arenas, even more so since he hasn't played any matches yet. All things considered, I believe we have wrongly set odds here, and I'll go with the riskier option, while for a higher stake I can recommend the 9.5 over and even an overall over for the match. Details

The difference in quality between these two teams is such that I'll easily play on Slovakia to win. They are hosting the tournament, and have rounded up the strongest possible lineup they can right now, with five Slovan players including Nagy, currently one of the best KHL attackers. The team also lists the Amur duo of Hascak and Miklil, and some more great Czech league players who are among the best there. They have an extremely experienced goalie, and their defense is led by Granak, Sersen and guys from Sparta Prague. The Germans are bringing five first-timers and a somewhat weaker team than the one that beat the Slovaks three months ago, this team containing only a few names from the one before. The arena at Banska Bystrica is sold out, the Slovaks are saying they don't want to disappoint their fans, and they have the ideal situation. The previous results and defeats, as well as duels, are irrelevant, as the players are often shuffled and rotated in national team matches. Today the Slovaks are bringing their best team, similar to what they'll bring to the WC, while the Germans are coming to try out some combinations. The Slovaks have quality, experience and fan support on their side, and I expect them to beat the young and weaker Germans, whose team is put together from DEL league players. A mixed up DEL team cannot handle the best players from the best European leagues. Details

This is a transition tournament for many players and the good run in Australia doesn't necessarily help at the first indoors tournament in Europe. Muller did great in Australia and served brilliantly. That helped him win a lot of matches and I have to point out that he said going home means a lot to him. I'm not saying he'd lose easily, but I can't claim he's very motivated. besides, he's Top 40 now, with the best ranking ever. On the other hand, Berankis loves these kind of matches. I immediately think about his win over Raonic last season in Moscow. Return is his strong suit and serving worked well. He can be described in a sentence - great game, poor mental strength. That is why being an underdog suits him better. This handicap can be covered in two sets, given Muller's tendency to play tie-breaks. I think he will lose and trying with Berankis' win isn't a bad choice either. Handicap is a must. Details