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I don't see a single reason why Celta are being so favorized in today's match. Deportivo and Celta are currently quite equal, and since it's a big local derby, this is at least a 50-50 match, but I still wouldn't give the advantage to the hosts. In the first part of the season we offered a bet on Celta who passed in the last minute in the match, and Deportivo had a missed penalty shot. It was at the time when Celta held a position for the Champions League, while today's hosts were at the bottom of the table.
Since then the situation changed drastically. Celta fell into a crisis, Deportivo started playing better and the difference between the two teams today is minimum. My rule is, and I don't believe it's mine alone, is there is always a certain advantage given to the hosts in derbies like this, because the fans are also a huge factor.
Both teams don't have problems with absences, and after everything that's been said it seems to me that the hosts are somewhat closer to a win. Considering the great odds, I chose the variable which brings a certain profit even if it ends in a draw. Details

Ferrer improved his game lately. He had a set and a break against Monaco and then got into a crisis. Even though he lost a set, but won by five games in the end. We have the same handicap today and yesterday and that cannot be. Monaco is getting better even though the results might not have suggested it. His game this and last week was Top 30. He is one of the five players with most ATP wins on clay. He fired 30 winners against Ferrer yesterday and still lost convincingly. Maurer is tough, but not as patient. Ferrer is consistent and better at each segment but service. Ferrer will destroy him with rhythm, consistency, and forcing Maurer into a few extra moves. A close first set doesn't mean a crisis for Ferrer while the Austrian often loses focus and falls apart. I think he won't stand too much chance today and this matcup doesn't suit him. He won only seven games in their two matches so far (5 sets). Details

Caen tied a nice series together, but they owe a lot of it to luck and their opponents' troubles. Good scores may have lifted them, but as I wrote in the preview, it's better to go modest in such games.
Defense absences are harder than they seem at first, and if they start off too ambitiously, Lens will know how to punish that.
The away team lost an important match on Saturday, but Evian had a different approach than Caen will today. They scored a draw three times before that, and the fair thing for them would be to have won at least seven points. I've been writing that they've been playing better from week to week - I think it's high time for the score to settle in as well. They lost only once to Caen in the last five matches, with two goals conceded. Details

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This is a bet based on the members of the two teams, and less on the statistics so far. With Nexe's line as it is, it doesn't seem very trustworthy and they're struggling against stronger line-up. Celebi, Herceg, Jurjevic, Sokolic, Barisic-Jaman... I really don't know how will they play against the physically impressive Vuckovic, Muller brothers and Danner who are the kings of German defense. This Melsungen conceded 26 goals against Tartan and Toulouse, considering that they were in great advantage. Coach Kordi is different than Kamenica who led NEXE who played a ot faster. Kordi is keeping it all under control and the defense is currently stronger that NEXE's offense. That's how they've beat the Hungarians in the first round with 31-19. They've managed to beat Magdeburg here (22-21) although those there other times. All i all, I think NEXE don't stand a chance if this goes to numbers around 30, I'm convinced they will try to keep this under control and not allow Melsungen to speed around. Kordi surely paid attention to the opponents, and Melsungen get by thanks to the transitions over wings Sellin and Allendorf. In order to prevent that it's important to play long, patiently and smartly in the offense. Even if they want, NEXE can't reach the chances easily in this match. Details

The Eurocup knock-out was a great disappointment for Strasbourg and at the same time a great lesson. I think the defeat to Zenit made them even better and that they will only confirm it in the second part of the season. Their motivation is running extremely high and after Limoges and Nanterre got knocked out yesterday, Strasbourg got a great chance to win the first trophy of the season. They beat Le Havre easily yesterday to only confirm they are the no.1 favorite for the title. Dijon were better than Paris in theory but the reality was different. It ended up a close game that was settled early in the final quarter. The win for Dijon doesn't change the fact Borg's team are in decline. They lost 5 out of the 6 previous game and won only in the unimportant game in Ljubljana. This is their second game in 24 hours and that will matter since they don't have as much choice on the roster as Strasbourg. Collet rarely uses any player for more than 30 minutes and now has all of their at his disposal for the first time. Dijon struggle in the key, don't have the proper center, and no player taller than 203cm. That was not obvious yesterday but it could be more than clear against Strasbourg front court. I expect Strasbourg to cover this handicap. They won both head-to-head games so far when Dijon were at a much higher level.
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Both Napoli and Como have the same number of points, but Como are one game short. They are of equal quality but I trust Napoli today. They have Darko Brguljan's individual quality, which Como don't and they're playing home. Besides, Napoli have two Italian internationals and a few young players who displayed their quality in the last rounds. After crushing Savon home, they played a close game in Brescia, and then a draw with Posilip, who seem better than Como since their injured players got back. Last round, Napoli were just a step short of surprising Acquichiara in the city derby. They took a lead by three goals a few times and then conceded a goal in the very finish of the match. This game is important in the race for playoffs. Bogaliasco and Lazio are just behind and Napoli need points from these kind of games. T sum up, home game, previous performances, an Brguljan make me trust Napoli today. Details

The limit above 50 goals is always something that has value in matches played by Holstebro, especially in the ones where they're the hosts and "fresh" to play, and that's today. Only two matches on their home turf ended below 50 goals, one was against the best defense in the Danish championship (Midtjylland), and the second against the physically dominant Arhus. Next to that, they have the second best offense in the championship. Statistically, when talking about head-to-head, these two teams played one "under" match in the first part of the season, although the tendency in the first part of the mach suggested over 50 goals. But, other three matches in the last two seasons ended above this margin, and both in this hall were above 55 goals. The away coach announced that he wants to see better efficiency from his offense until the end of the season. Details

Two very important factors make Midtjylland a heavy favorite. The first one is the excellent form in which they are for a while now and a number of well-experienced players at every position. Those two things are a big problem for Viborg. Lack of options and injured players that affect their results lately. Sanja Damjanovic is back and that will help but Viborg still have only one player at both wing position and the line. They scored less than 20 goals in their last meeting in Copenhagen and what are they to expect against the best defense in the league. Midtjylland are playing home, they're motivated and after the defeat in the first part of the season. Midtjylland were in shock back then after a knock-out in CL qualification and without Lina Jorgesen. The situation on the team is nearly perfect now. Details

Dubava are in the race for Champions League but I don't that is questionable. They are without Kljajic and one of the key defense players Prka and that might see them lag behind Porec and Varazdin. Even like that, Dubrava are better than Djakovo. They have Dumencic who is great, while Djakovo lost three key players. Only 7 of their players are top league level and they will be looking for points home. I just got the information that they went to Zagreb without the key defense player Lubar, and first choice goal keeper Gagulic is questionable. He was he key player in their win over Umag. If Gagulic can't play, Djakovo will be in some serious trouble. Dubrava are better by some 5 goals at the moment. Details

When Aston Villa management finally realized they need to sack the manager who's been dragging them to the bottom for the third consecutive season (12 goals in 25 games), the English media concluded that it has never happen that such a good team struggled to avoid relegation.
And they're right. It's really hard to believe, given the quality in all of their lines, that Villa could have done so badly to plummet to spot 18 in the table.
The leadership change was necessary as the team proved in the very first game since Sherwood took over to beat Leicester in FA Cup (2-1). A young manager will definitely bring about some changes and first and foremost, demand a more offense-oriented game. Getting out of such a difficult situation is not easy but Villa has the quality for it and now that a more capable man took over, they should be able to prevail.
The game with Stoke today is the official start of the mission called 'saving Villa from relegation'. They are expected to have a lot of fan support today and will be keen to do well now that the new manager took over. Stoke are the ideal opponent at this point as they basically finished their season last Saturday as they played a second-tier Blackburn in FA Cup to record a crushing 1-4 defeat. Stoke has nothing left to fight and their top player Krkic is out. Three defenders are missing as well and Stoke will probably struggle against the motivated opponent today.
Granted, scoring 12 goals in 25 games is a sign of weakness but I think the change in leadership will be the turning point in this season for Villa. I think the game against Stoke is a new beginning and that they should be able to record a win after five straight defeats.
I will go with the option without a draw tip -1. If the game is a draw, the bet is void and if Aston Villa win, you have a wining bet. Details

It's obvious that when he's in the mood, Monfils is dangerous for any tennis player. He's quality is getting better from one match to the other, and he showed that against Bolelli. He served really well, he was dangerous on the return. Despite that, Bolelli wasn't at the same level as he was against Raonic. Mofils still showed a better game and thus won. Bautista is playing well as usual, without many oscillations; he beat Pospisil and Thiem at this tournament, and that was expected. In Rotterdam Monfils beat Bautista with three games of difference, and I'm sure he'll win again today with minimum that much difference because he's in better shape than he was then and his game is more serious. Monfils is currently the superior player who has a lot more possibilities than his opponent, and that's why I expect a convincing win. In case it heads into three sets, I think the handicap involved will also be covered. Details

The story of Mona Bathel is well known. She has extremely powerful shots, forehand especially, an on a good can beat just about anyone. But good days are scare for lately and she has to rely on momentum and form more. The form is not good at the moment. She had no response for Zahlavova's 'diversity' and then disappointed with her performance against Hantuchova. Hantuchova won Pattaya only a day earlier and clearly wasn't at her best physically, Barthel didn't use it and made too many mistakes, handing the win to Hantuchova on a silver platter. Kozlova, on the other hand, did great last week. Wins over Konjuh, Vesnina, and Watson were not expected but she played well and won deservedly. Good service, good-quality shots and consistent game are the reasons why I think she will have the upper hand here. Just like Barther, she will be good in her service games but I believe that her consistency will make the difference in rallies. The conditions in Qatar suit her more than Bathel and this is at least a 50-50 match, which gives the odds that are offed value. Details

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Continuing to pick first set tie-break for several reasons. Karlović lived up to our expectations, playing four matches in his USA tour and failing to get the bet through only once, against Brown who made two double faults in a game he lost. Krajicek, Lacko and Kokkinakis all covered this bet, and Johnson should too. The American has plenty of experience with tall servers, after all he did beat Karlović in both previous matches, but with lots of luck, in an extended third set tie-break. It's all clear here and the American knows what's coming. He is not the kind of player to get scared of being unable to return, and can hold his serve. Everything points to a tie-break. In his two matches against Isner four of the five sets played were decided in a tie-break. Against Raonic he had four in three matches. In all those matches we saw a first set tie-break. He has four tie-breaks in two matches against Karlović, so the choice is clear. Over on games in the match also sounds good, despite the margin being high, which was to be expected. Details

This margin is at least two to three points too low given the events from last night. The Dragic brothers are no longer in Phoenix, just like Ennis, Plumlee, and Isaiah Thomas. Goran Dragic and Thomas are, of course, the key figured for our bet since them and Bledsoe (17.2 points per game) always played positions one and two. The rest of the team now needs to somehow make up for Dragic and Thomas' 31.4 points per game. I highly doubt that the new acquisitions will be up for it and I expect Bledsoe to take most of the responsibility in offense, which he often did even when the Suns back court was crowded. He was hive the contract last summer and the board made it clear he's their man now. I am sure he will improve his numbers from now on, with Minneapolish being his first chance at it. Details