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This is in a way similar to Nexe - Melsungen yesterday. One defensively very good team (Zagreb) and one offensively very thin, even worse that Nexe. Metalurg are practically playing with juniors; they're helped with a single veteran and a player who was average in Croatia. They're best on wings, but wings don't win matches like this one. Tonci Vlacic is returning to Zagreb after a missed match against La Rioja where they were terrible defense-wise, but we can't compare that to Metalurg. Zagreb say they want one away win. Currently they don't have it, but they won all five home ones. Vujovic certainly won't allow any relaxation because it would be a disgrace to lose to Metalurg who last week scored THREE goals against Kiel until half-time (17-3). At the same time, Metalurg will fight as hard as they can because their defense can mean something, but their offense is worthless. Don't be surprised if you see a 13-8 during half-tie, and then 27-21 in the end. It's hard to see this match go over 50 goals, so I have to reduce bets here a bit. Details

Another Sicilian derby, and yet another slightly too high margin in my opinion. The last one against Trapani and Agrigento, which I also picked, did not go through because the match went into overtime. Regular time ended 70-70. Barcellona played at 150 points against Trapani with extra time, Agrigento had a 131 point game against Trapani, and the above mentioned one which was completed with an extra five minutes. The first duel of these teams ended close to this margin (79-73), with 46 points in the last quarter. The trend is more than clear, Sicilian derbies are tough, aggressive, and usually have lower scores. However, this is not the only reason for this pick. Barcellona haven't played a competitive match in three weeks, which should have cut short their rhythm, which was already in short supply. They have a shallow rotation of just 6-7 players, which is why they cannot push for a quicker tempo, which is in a way reflected in their averages, 148.4 in league matches, 146.6 at home. Agrigento are at about 150 points, but their tougher matches (or those against opponents who cannot score, such as Napoli) mostly end under this margin. Details

These opponents played their last seven matches over this margin, two of which exactly at 53 points. One of such duels was their first this season, but in very strange circumstances. Skuru's goalie had 21 saves, and Savehof's weren't far behind with 17. Those definitely above-average performances by both sides, but they still had an over at this margin, why? Because both teams run a high paced game and fired a total of 109 shots in their previous duel this season. I don't expect any less today, nor do I expect another 20+ saves by Skurus' goalies, primarily because Savehof are angry after almost ending their winning series. A duel much closer to 60 goals in total seems a much more realistic proposition and something these teams are familiar with, as three of their past seven duels ended at 58 goals in total. Details

These two teams recently played a great Euro League match with Efes as the home team, Fener won 77-71. The match came down to one possession, though the result may not show it. Fener took their first lead in the last quarter with 97 seconds to go when Zisis made a 3 point shot for a 67-66 lead. Perperoglou and Goudelock traded three pointers in the last minute, and then, after the American made his three pointer for 71-69, Janning loses the ball in an incredibly stupid manner, deciding the game. The final +6 were the consequence of Hickman's free throws (4/4) and forced misses by Efes. If we add in the fact Efes won their first duel 85-67, then the fact they're underestimated here seems a mistake. Ivković managed to control Goudelock in both games (10 points) through great defending, while Fener will be missing Bogdanović today, which is another plus for Efes. Controlling Goudelock was not an accident, as Efes have been playing elite defense against opponent's key players all season long. Here in Gaziantep they erased Erceg on the first day and stopped Farmar from playing much the day before yesterday, those two being the key players for Galata and Darussafaka.They rested Krstić on the first day, and there was no game yesterday, so we'll certainly see him today. Perperoglou is in top form (15+10 in the semifinal), Huertel's arrival gave them more creativity, while Fener struggle on offense. They scored 72 against Gaziantep, came back from -12 vs Karsiyaka and stayed at 74. If Efes do a good job defending the key two guys on Fener's roster, Vesely and Bjelica, they'll come close to winning. In any case, I doubt Fener will win this so decisively that the finish will not be a thriller. Details

If you ask me, this is too low for a couple of points. Jesi have players to see this game through with more points. They played like that alost every time when they played against an over (Brescia 156 and 157,, Biella 184 and 147, Napoli 174...). They don't hesitate to run around, and their defense is not that great - they concede 79.7 points, and 80.6 in the last 10 matches We've already written about Torino's defense in the preview. The team who are aware they can deal with every match using offense, and they don't delve too much into the defense. This is especially seen in away matches where they're the worst defense of the league, conceding on average 86.5 points. Their away matches are on 165 points on average, and their potent offense is now additionally stronger for the great shooter Miller who will have a special motive today because he's playing against his own, so I expect him to be better than in the first two matches. How things should look like could be visible from their first head-to-head where they had a total of 181 points. Details

Although Melbourne beat the Kings in an away match yesterday, I still don't see them as the favorites. There are a lot of reasons for that. First one is the fact that neither of the teams have a good bench. The Kings' bench achieved 19 points in that match (Brandt 16 points) while Melbourne's reserves added 26. Too much of that depends on the starting five on both sides, and the Kings showed they can stand up to that. Besides, Worthington and Walker have health problems and are not at 100%, and the schedule of matches in less than 48 hours won't make the job easier. I think that the first match was decided with an unsportly move by the Kings' captain Garlepp over Kickert two minutes before the end. At the time Melbourne had +4 and the Kings didn't manage to take the lead until the end. Additionally, I don't think the Kings will again allow 12 three-pointers to Melbourne, but will have a better defense. Although he didn't fail in recent matches, Dunquier played only nine minutes against Melbourne, while the rest belonged to Brandt. As weird as it may sound (he's an average player), he could be the key player who will bring the Kings energy in the final. They have significant advantage in the rebound which they have to use, and a counter-handicap from 7.5 points, and that seems like a bet I can't miss. Details