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I don't understand why Stephens is so underrated right now. Kerber did nothing to advance this year, and changed her coach, which just shows she is unable to do anything and is looking for fresh blood in her team. However, nothing can happen overnight. Kerber has been struggling against all opponents this year, regardless of their level, and has problems starting with her serve, lack of toughness, security, and confidence. When she tries to change something and play more aggressively, she makes a lot of mistakes. Stephens could be a land mine for anyone in this tournament in my opinion, as she's out of the Top 40 right now and was in the Top 10 not so long ago. Indian Wells is her do or die moment, and I expect her to react here. She can easily parry Kerber in all segments, and will be sufficiently motivated on home ground. She also might vaguely remember her match against the same player right here three years ago, when Stephens showed she had what it takes to beat Kerber, just needed to close the match. Kerber was firmly in the top 10 back then, Stephens was the youngest among Top 100. Stephens has a lot of talent and potential, and is a diamond in the rough. I've been following Kerber constantly since the season started, and she cannot be favored against Stephens. I tried to find the reason, but just could not. Name and reputation don't carry weight on court, and Kerber lost even that this season. Details

Everything I wrote for the MRA Navarra and Palma game will apply to this one. The first game at the final Spanish Cup tournament. The pressure of winning it, especially on Barcelona. I believe that will affect the offense while defenses will be particularly motivated. In the only head-to-head of the season, Navarra managed to scored a goal in minute 39 but that didn't help because they were in a big deficit. Two favorites were knocked out yesterday and Carmona's team is under a lot pressure now. I believe they can handle it but I think that both defenses will do very well, especially in the first half and that we will not see more than three goals here. Second and fifth best LNFS defenses are meeting here and we need to try and take advantage of this margin. Details

Halep got to the semifinal here last year, and has a lot of points to defend. Apart from that, she is focused on winning the title, and wants a Grand Slam title. She is in her regular good form, especially since she is no longer struggling with her ribs and ankle problems, but had a death in her family, which will be an extra incentive to put in effort and focus. Daria wa sin great form at the start of the year, but still lacked that extra something to get better results. Over the past few weeks she won what one would expect her to win, but is rather unimpressive and fades in and out during matches. Beating worse players with such performances is not that difficult, but her current flaws will be very apparent against Halep, which is why I believe she will lose, decisively. Interestingly, Halep beat Soler by nine games in the Fed Cup, while Daria beat the same player by five games. The overall difference in quality is still too big, and the current state is still not in favor of Daria; even if Halep were not giving her maximum, I believe she would still win by at least six games. Details

Regardless of what Donna said about loving the sweet revenge, I think she is still very far from it. A win over Chirico that was full of ups and downs and inconsistency is not significant. Chiciro did make progress but that is still very far from WTA level. Donna opened the new season horribly, then made some progress but not enough to threaten Diyas. She is still prone to ups and downs, unforced errors and mental decline. On the other hand, Diyas opened the season quite well, proving she deserves to be seeded here. She is mentally powerful, persistent, git, and able to deliver her shots exactly as taught. She is currently a much better player, superior in the most important aspects - mental strength, persistence, and she's not prone to unforced errors. I think she should be able to win by at least 6 games. Details

The first duel of these teams in the Top 16 ended at 142, the preseason match at 129, though that is no benchmark here. They'll be playing in Greece now, in a far, far more important match and we have a high margin that I believe to be worth playing. Oly have the best defense in Europe, no point wasting time to elaborate on that, and that segment got even greater focus with the arrival of Sferopoulos. Players point out everything starts with defense, which gives them the confidence for offense, and they do prove their point on court. Fenerbahce are a team with great offensive potential, but have also gained a lot defensively with the arrival of Zisis. I believe that the match-ups in this game indicate an under, as Zisis is definitely capable of making things tough for Spanoulis, and when you do that Oly gets in trouble. Equally so, Oly have top of the line defense players capable of largely stifling Goudelock, and especially Bogdanović. Considering how important the match is, and that the losing team will have a hellish route to the Final Four, I don't believe this will be a pretty match, and I believe the winner will be decided by 70-75 points at most. Details

I think it's worth betting on the Italians' win today. Far from it that they are dependable but the situation is rather interesting here. They beat Unicaja in Malaga and have the players capable of standing up to them. Unicaja will be without Vasiliadis and Stefansson and Milano's back court should be able to do well. Hackett, Ragland, Gentile and Brooks seem a lot better than Granger, Markovic, and Toolson, at least on paper. On top of that, Stefansson is one of the best players on Unicaja's defensive end. Last week against Olympiacos, Milano didn't stand a chance but the Greek team are, as Fenerbahce's coach Obradovic said, the best defense in Euroleague and cannot be compared to Unicaja. Unicaja just lost against the bottom table ACB League team Manresa and they have a derby match with Valencia this Saturday. I think Plaza will be careful about some players because Unicaja's Euroleague chances are next to zero. Details

The quarterfinal of the Cup Winners Cup brings together once again, like last year, Zvenigorod and Fleury Loiret. Zvenigorod won both times last year (32-28, 34-28), and later got to the final. This time both games are in France, and though Zvenigorod was the favorite last year and justified that, this time around the tables have turned. Fleury have almost the same roster as last season, with three Spanish and several current and past French national team members, and reinforced this season with the arrival of Cabral Barbosa. Zvenigorod on the other hand rejuvenated their roster. They lost their main star and best young Russian player, Viakhireva, experienced Postnova, as well as pivot Lobach and back Artsiukovich. Their best players are wingers Marenikova and Uskova, and the goalies are experienced Sidorova and Basarab. Apart from left back Koroleva their perimeter is inexperienced (Potapenko, Khavronina, Ivanova), while pivot is their last season substitute Antonova. Fleury dominate their league, leading with 13 victories, two draws and a single defeat. Two weeks ago they won the French league cup. Zvenigorod ended the regular season as third ranked, with 14 victories and 4 losses.
Fleury have a stronger and wider roster, are playing at home, and are also fresher going into this match. They played their last match on March 4th (29-23 vs Nimes), while Zvenigorod played against Rostov two days ago. They won, but in a match with no significance for Rostov where they were missing 4 regular starters, while the match was very important for Zvenigorod to get a better position for the playoff. I expect Fleury to try getting a score that leads them to the playoff in the first match, as well as getting payback for the defeats suffered last season. Details

Orleans continue to be underrated, and I think this should be taken advantage of. Since Vincent took over, they're not the same team, and the quality of a potential playoff team is now coming to light. Things started poorly for them and their lack of confidence was a real problem, but it took them just two games to get that back and Orleans are a quite dangerous team now, especially after May arrived to give them strength under the rim. Credit to Le Havre for all they're doing this season, but I would not favor them so much here. The team from Normandy won more games away than at home, which only goes to show they do better when not under pressure as favorites. They're also not a team to demolish their opponents, having beaten only Boulogne with a double digit lead this season at home, so even if they win I expect it to be close. The 7.5 is a great safety here, I believe the margin to be 3-4 points too high given the balance of power, and even more importantly, the confidence Orleans gained from recent victories. Details

The bookies think Cannes will record an easy win over Saint Nazaire, but I would not agree with that. They met three times so far and Cannes have only one win. They won 3-2 this season while losing the two matches last year in straight sets. The visiting coach clearly has the game for the opponents even though he has a team of lesser quality. Cannes are fighting for the top spot but that seem to be a burden in a way. Saint Nazaire won't lack motivation either since they still have to secure placement in this league next year. Cannes lost in Paris in straight sets last season, they have not been responding well after the defeats so far and I think that's a chance for the visitors after their disappointing game against Sete. The odds at visitors getting a set against a team that suits them is too good. Cannes won only 5 matches in straight sets this season, meaning the stats are backing this tip as well. Details

Too many factors indicate an under result in this game for me to miss this. The arrival of Aščerić to lead Lille improved their defense tremendously, and they've gone over this margin only once since he took over, at home against Poitiers. That's one in nine games! Of course, I count the two that stayed under in regular time as unders, and they went over because of extra time. Statistically speaking, Monaco are not much of an under team, with 12 unders and 13 overs in the season, but they're still a primarily defense oriented team and base a lot of their game on a tough defense. It is no accident that they're the fourth best defense in the league with 71.5 points allowed to opponents on average. Their prior match was also a war, ending at 140, and I expect a similar outcome here, as the match is important for both teams. Lille are trying to get as far away as possible from the danger zone, Monaco are fighting for the top. The away team have changed coaches, but from what I could find I figure Mitrović is also a defense focused guys, who will certainly avoid losing his first match. This in turn means a serious attitude and disciplined game and tactics. In other words, cautious and defense focused. Details

Although she surprised by beating Goerges in the first round, I still don't trust Watson, as theirs was a poor match with both players making too many mistakes. The Brit lacked confidence once again, losing five games in a row after taking a 5-3 lead in the second set. Her game stagnated in that period and the numerous mistakes made by Goerges were the only think keeping her in the match. Giorgi plays better tennis. She did lose twice to Carla Suarez Navarro, but the Brit and Navarro should not be put in the same sentence even. Giorgi struggles against Navarro because of her style, as Carla has a quality top spin shot which prevents Giorgi from going forward and looking for a winner. This is why Camila had to take more chances and look for winners from the base line, which will not be the case against Watson. In this match-up Giorgi has the consistence for longer rallies and can get through even in the forehand. She is also more confident on her first serve, and plays with more confidence overall. Details

The Cup is one rather special competition. One game in which everyone can surprise is played. The two games that were played yesterday in which I expected surprises proved it. I was toying with going with counter handicaps but I really couldn't imagine that both underdogs (Jean and Burela) will knock out heavy favorites Inter Movistar and El Pozo Murcia. Why am I talking about what happened yesterday? Because it is now clear that the others will be under even greater pressure. There's only one favorite (Barcelona) left and they already proved to be vulnerable. Two teams that don't have the offense potential like two leading teams are to meet today and because of that and the fact the stakes are high, forwards will be under more pressure. The championship games ended at 6 and 7 goals but both teams had to do their best back then.
I can't deny that I prefer going with the Spanish unders and yesterday's games showed that we can expect something similar to happen again today. Slower surface, very focused goal keepers, the pressure, new ball - all of that and two well-experienced tough teams are the reasons I expect this kind of outcome. Details