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I don't usually play handicaps this high, but I really don't see how this can go below a 10 point lead. For Kiel this is rehearsal for Sunday and the most important match of the season against Lowen, but with the rotation Gislason has at his disposal on the perimeter, resting players and distributing time, this does not mean lesser intensity. After all, they're currently playing such a 3-2-1 defense, with either Duvnjak or Jicha up front, that it's impossible to score a goal against them. They had +12 at halftime against Erlangen, and beat this same Bergischer at home by 12. Now Bergischer are missing some important defense players such as Meschke, Dragaš, Preuss and Weiß might not play either, and since they have an important away game at Lemgo on Saturday, where they have a bigger chance to win, I doubt coach Hinze will push the players who aren't ready. They play away games terribly this season, with a 1-1-11 score, and since Szilagyi, their key attacker, cannot play against the kind of defense they'll face in Kiel, this cannot go below +10, Details

4 h2h games this season, none of which finished with more than 50 goals speak volumes of the game-styles these opponents have. The pace in the first part of the season was not too fast and is now even slower. Two matches in the battle for avoiding relegation finished with a total of 92 and 86 shots, which means both teams need to have efficiency of well over 50% to go over the set margin. Since the points from this match are extremely important, for Aarau especially, under seems to be a very likely outcome. The mere fact home team have not scored more than 23 goals in any of the last 7 games is an extra reason. Details

Due to obligations in Europe for the away team, this duel is taking place earlier than scheduled. The home team played a draw at Koblenz in the last round, after dropping a four goal lead in the last 10 minutes. One must note their quality defense, led by goalie Cathrin Giegerich, perhaps their best player, and member of the national team. Bietigheim have been struggling with injuries from the start of the season, and never had a full roster. Hungarian veteran Maria Ilyes did not play the Koblenz game due to illnes, and might not today, and she was their best scorer in the first match against Thuringer, scoring 9. Two more of their players had flu problems recently, backs Simone Larsen Poulsen and Jongenelen, and performed worse at Koblenz due to that.
For Thuringer this match comes just before their home quarterfinal duel in the Champions league against Larvik, on Saturday, and one can expect the players to be already there in their minds. They're missing three important players right now, first goalie Krause due to knee injury, and top scorer Nadgornaja and left winger Frey. Krause was well replaced by junior national team member Eckerle in the past two games, saving 16 shots against Blomberg in a good preview for tonight. In a situation where Thuringer need not push and need just two points here while playing without their best scorer, and the home team have a limited roster and cannot rely on their offense, one naturally sees the option of at least 1-2 goals under the offered margin. Their first match this season ended at exactly 53 goals, while the last one they played here last season was one less (17-35). Details

When Cesson beat Toulouse in the first part of the season 25-24, the 21 out of the 49 goals were scored by players who won't be there today. Not because they moved on, but because they are out with injuries. Andjelkovic, Fernandez, and Chelle are out at Toulouse, Briffe and Batinovic at Cesson. That makes up for 5 back players neither team can make up for since both generally have very little choice of players. Tourlouse played Nantes 20-23 in League Cup final Sunday and I expect another defense-oriented match today. I would not be surprised if it finished at under 50 goals. Toulouse would normally go close to 60 home and this tip is therefore not backed by stats. The circumstances are much different now and that dictates this situation. Tououse are fighting for their life and that is the main reason for this tip. Details

Head-to-head record might be deceitful in this game. The previous Savenhof-Skovde matches finished with more than 55 goals but they were all played before the drastic change in tactics at Savenhof after which they focus on defense. Their average number of goals dropped significantly since and the have 13 unders and 4 overs at this margin since. That became particularly obvious against team that are good in fastbreaks (like Skovde): 47 in the Drott game, 43 against Redberglids, 47 and 51 against Guif. One game with the defending champions Alingsas finished at 38, the other one at 51. Skove have been slowing the pace down as well as the games became more important to finish with unders in the last 4 games. Since this is a game of utmost importance that will decide which is the opponents will end up in Kvalserien, I expect another under. Details

Depressed, disappointed, and tired Schwering are set to met Stuttgart, a team that is having its best season ever. They won the Cup, finished regular season as the runner-ups, the atmosphere and chemistry within the team are great. They had a lot more time to prepare for this game. Stuttgart beat Schwerin two times this season back when the situation at Schwerin was much better than now. A trip to Turkey and back and the match in Bursa left a trace on the team. Disappointment with players and the coach was massive after the defeat in Turkey and only three days later, they need to play a new game. Schwerin counted on the European final after winning the first game. The arena in Stuttgart is sold out, they are doing great home this season - lost only to Dresden home (in five sets). They are a good home team while Schwerin aren't that good away. I repeat, they lost twice here this season. I trust Stuttgart will take advantage of Schwerin's European slip. Details

Last year, when Zadar were stronger than this season, they lost in the playoff against Šibenik at Baldekin, by 8. back then Zadar had Lyons and Lawrence, Šutalo, but also a better atmosphere than now. There is no money, the players are doing their best, but it's not easy coming home and being broke. However, setting aside that factor, though it's not an irrelevant one, Zadar will face a full arena and highly motivated opponents. These two cities and teams have no love for each other, and the orange team will play their heart out. Zadar also suit them in terms of roster. With the departure of Bošnjak and Florence, Nazor has a very thin rotation on the perimeter. Segarić, Bašić, Širko and Ramljak are not much of a rotation. Zadar are strong under the rim, with Sobin, Ivanov, Barać amd Kraljević, but Šibenik have Šamadan, Vukičević, Marciuš and Blaće (even Vrkić) who can parry them there. It seems that Šibenik even have better guards, as Junaković, Bašić and Smith score more than Zadar's guards. Overall, I would not be surprised by Šibenik winning, which can be played at 1/10, but the +7.5 sounds great too. Under at 150.5 is not bad at all either, that is at 4-5/10, but I chose the option that Šibenik will not lose by more than 7 points. Details