betprepare.com

Osaka eliminated Stosur here last year, and then Petković beat Osaka in the second round, but commented that we'll be hearing from Osaka. Petković wasn't wrong. Osaka has the best ranking of her career at the moment, and it's a question of when she gets to Top 150. She'll turn 18 in October, but her game is much better than her current ranking. Even though she's Japanese, her game style isn't. Her serve is good, as is her forehand, her footwork, and the game that approaches the net. She likes to dictate the rallies. True, she tends to oscillate in this phase of her career, but she's got a great chance to get a win today. She'll face Kimiko, a player with no serve, no strength, and Osaka will be able to play her game. She feels best there, and builds her advantage, which is especially obvious in the fast conditions of Stanford. Kimiko is still playing, but she's dragging herself a lot. She got five out of ten wins this season in the last two tournaments, but got 17 defeats. Kimiko still struggles with the injuries a lot. She forfeited in the quarterfinal at the last tournament because she had problems with her hip, thigh, pinky finger, and she said she felt pain all over her body. She couldn't keep it together, playing so many matches broke her, and then she cancelled Lexington. Things aren't much better here in Stanford either. With all those previous pains, she's struggling with her knee now, and the question is if there is one body part that Kimiko isn't feeling pain in. Osaka's got the motive, the game for this court, and she's got the game for Kimiko. Kimiko is in deep water, she managed to push her game on the Tour, but that won't work against Osaka. Details

I think the margins for the points total in a match this irrelevant are absolutely too low. It's true that the first duel between these teams ended at 117 points, but those circumstances were a lot different than today, and both teams had only 36% shots from the court, and only 50% free throws total (they missed 20 total). This margin is based on the average points in matches so far, but this match character is quite different than the tough duels in the fight for the quarterfinal and the survival. Both won their matches yesterday, and fulfilled their main goal for the rest of the competition. Whoever feels less burden now might show more efficient basketball. Russia don't have players taller than 203 cm, and they're trying to make up for that by a faster game. When the opponents push them into a tight corner, they have problems. On the other hand, matches against Finland confirmed that they do well in circumstances like those I expect to see today. The Italians confirmed against Ukraine that they know how to accept a faster game by their opponents, and considering they're dealing with numerous injuries, I don't think they're really put too much effort into the defense today. Since I think they're favored too much, I decided to pick the team over for Russia. Details

I was not too impressed by this Lithuania even though they reached the semifinals. Except for that first game with Greece, in which Lithuania were lagging behind almost all the time and managed to win only because of Greece's bad finish, the Lithuanians didn't beat any other top team here. Bosnia played their worst game at the start, and they weren't too convincing against Russia, Croatia and Germany. I think the battle for the bronze medal is their reality. They are now to take on Greece, who left the best impression so far. They lost games to Bosnia and Lithuania in the very final moments and displayed character when they couldn't afford to lose. They crushed Croatia, Italy and Turkey and could have won by 30 points if they didn't hold back in the end. Greece also beat France yesterday easier than expected. They carried out the tactical plan perfectly and stopped the French transition completely. Regardless of that defeat, I'm sure Lithuania suits them more than France and that they will have their vengeance today. This margin suggests a close game but I don't think that's what we'll see today. We'll see hosts' winning by at least 10 points. Details

Maribor aren't in the best period, that's clear. Krško are definitely in the best period in the club history. This doesn't make this one seem like a good pick, but you have to know the difference in quality between these two. Maribor played the Champions League last year, and are now focused on the national championship. Maribor get a lot of criticism, and they need something to quieten it down. They'll play this in front of their own fans, against a rookie in the first league. They've got some injured players, but that doesn't matter, they've got 20 good players total. Krško played the first two matches at home against Celje and Koper, and won both, 1-0. Those matches were accompanied with euphoric feelings of 2000 viewers, which is a lot for this small club. That was a fanatic show by Krško, and it won't happen in an away match. We should point out that Koper shot the goalpost twice, and Celje scored a goal from the offside, which was annulled for no reason. That was a lot of luck for Krško. This time, Maribor will bite for 90 minutes, Krško will be playing away for the first time, and they should see where they belong, in the relegation zone. I expect 3-4 goals difference for Maribor. Details

Serbia lost Zivkov and Kovacevic is questionable but I still think they are better than Croatia. Serbia didn't do badly against Romania yesterday at all. Had they scored only the half of sitters they had, they would have won. Serbia had 7/11 from seven-meter throws, 9/17 from the 6-meter range and 3/9 from wing positions. Croatia, on the other hand, managed to lose the game they already settled (had a 8-goal lead). That must have left some trace on the players. Coach Sebek himself said he felt empty. How do then the 19-year-old girls feel after winning only one game. They didn't do well against France, it was more that France did badly. France would have mad a comeback even earlier if Ecimovic wasn't on the goal. Serbia played great defense and that is why they won. They focused on other players while allowing Mamic some freedom. She scored 9 while the rest of the team scored 11 in total. Serbia were completely dominant in that match from start to finish and could do the same today. Details

Belarus played three serious games here to lose the first one 38-23 to Sweden, to win the second one to Qatar after scoring the winning goal in the last second of overtime, and to concede 43 goals to Germany in QFs. That has probably never happened in the last 50 years at this Championship. Those 43 goals are Belarus' reality. They commit no fouls in defense, which is absolutely horrible thanks to the coach who is not backing down from the 3-2-1 his players can't do. The win over Spain yesterday is not relevant since Spain didn't try at all after losing to Denmark in the QFs. That does not go for Sweden. They lost to Egypt but managed to get back to their level and play a good and focused game. I saw their game against Romania, their goal keeper did great and all of that makes them better than Belarus by some 7-8 goals. The group stage h2h finished with a 17-goal difference (17-12 at half time). The difference is great and I think Sweden want spot 5. When so, Belarus don't have a say. Details

The circumstances before the first match between these two at the beginning of the EC were different. Macedonia were technically and tactically ready for that one, they were well rested, and the coach used Ristovska as the right back, which surprised the Lithuanians, and was one of the key for Macedonian win. That match showed an evened out first half-time where each team scored one goal before conceding one. In the second, Macedonia used the big number of mistakes the Lithuanian offense made, and the goalies were more efficient, getting to +4 in the end.
Today, the two teams playing here are really tired, but considering the rotations and width, that's more evident in the Macedonian team. They already have a limited roster, and the back Stojanovska is out. She usually stars as the right back because there's no one better to take that position, but she rotates in all three back positions, and is a good player defensively. The Lithuanians are more motivated, and they have the left back Ivanauskaita. She's currently the third best scorer of the EC, and her average in the last matches will definitely keep her at that spot, maybe she even gets a better one. I expect the team that makes less mistakes will win, and that the difference will be 1-2 goals for whichever team wins. Details