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I saw three of four Tsurenko matches at the last tournaments. I didn't see the one against Geroges in Rome, where the German lost as only she and a few more players knows. She had the first set and a 4-2 lead in the second one. I would go as far as saying that she doesn't deserve even a Top 100 judging by what she did in Nurnberg. She struggled last season against players she should not struggle again. Tsurenko even had some physical problems in the match against Hervog. That was the official reasons she pulled out of Geroges match. Everything starts and finished with two things here - the first one is the possible fatigue with Garcia. She won the Strasbourg. The other one is the pressure she always feels here. She played 4 matches for the title last week and won 3 out of 4 in straihgt sets and I cannot talk about fatigue. Garcia talked about pressure. She said she didn't like playing on the big court last year. I think the title from Strasbourg is crucial for her. She played home where she didn't do well for yeasr. That means that her confidence is good and that she will be more relaxed here. The stats are on our side as well. Tsirenko has 6 clay court defeats this season. She lost them by 6, 9, 5, 6, 5, 6 games. Last season she got two sets but stayed under this margin regardless. She would have stayed under against Geroges if the German was able to get the job done. She didn't cover the it against Razzano last week but Razzano is tough home. Also, she didn't do it against Ivanovic in Stuttgart (won both matches by 3 games). Looking further in the past, Tsurenko has 4-5-17 in converting this handicap in her defeats in the last 5 years. Garcia is 17-3-6 in her wins. Details

Even though Simona remembers much better days, as good of a player she might be, a lot here is based on betting against Hibino. The Japanese is simply not playing well in these conditions. Until this season, she did not have a single WTA match on clay. This year she recorded two wins, one against a 15-year-old who almost defeated her, and against Jani who doesn't belong to WTA level. Mediocre WTA player Buyukakcay limited her to only three games. Also, Hibino never defeated a Top 50 player, and she never fared well against Top 10 players. She won 4 games against Sharapova, and only two against Muguruza this season. We should say that both matches were played on hardcourt, a surface that suits her much better. The difference between her and Top 10 players is even bigger on clay, especially when it comes to a good clay-court player like Halep. Simona won 6 matches in Madrid, half of them in this under, and she played against similar or better opponents than Hibino. She limited Doi to 3 games, and the Japanese is also not very good on clay, but still better than Hibino. Two year ago, this would be an ever safer bet than it is today, but with the performance from Madrid, and considering Hibino's records on clay, and how she fared against Top 10 players, this is still a great prediction. Details

Honestly, I don't understand how Myrtille got the wild card for this tournament. She is 25 years old, and she never advanced through WTA qualifications. She never defeated a Top 100 player. So much about the tournaments she plays. The important thing here are the matches she played against players who are worse than McHale, but they can somehow be put in the same sentence. She lost by 9 games to Mitu, and by 7 to Hantuchova, they are the two best players she faced and she lost convincingly. If we add to that all the Top 200 players she faced, the situation is pretty clear. 160th player (lost by 6), 175th (by 7), 127th (by 10), 107th (by 9). She defeated Johansson, after a forfeit and Oprandi. Everything else were convincing defeats, not to talk about some defeats against players outside the Top 200. But the focus is on Top 200 players, and they defeated her easily, and none of them is at McHale's level. When we add to that the inability to advance through WTA qualifications, that says a lot. Also, she is coming here after three back-to-back defeats against players who are not as good as McHale. The American is coming here in good form, she recorded back-to-back wins in Stuttgart and Madrid. She defeated Pliskova and Ivanovic, played a tight match against Begu, and a tiebreak against Serena. McHale played six matches against players outside the Top 200 this season and she mostly won convincingly. She did not lose, and in the last three seasons she did not lose to such players. And when we have McHale and the French who convincingly loses to players like McHale, I think that the American will easily win here. She belongs to the WTA level, while Georges is far from that. Details