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The first one between them ended 26-26, Nantes are coming to win hoping that St. Raphael could make a mistake in Nimes and so they'd take over the CHampions League place. But, Toulouse will have their say because they're very competitive at home. Nantes can't win with their offense - they went over 29.5 in only four of 12 away games in the league, and when you eliminate games against Tremblay, PSG and Aix in the first round, the only one left is against Ivry where they solved it in the first half and hit 40. Toulouse allowed over 29.5 in only four of 12 games, and since two of those four were against Montpellier and PSG, then the statistics works. ALso, Toulouse allowed over only twice in the last eight, only against Montpellier (30) and PSG (37). This is their last home match this season so I have no doubt about their motivation. Eliminate Montpellier, and they haven't allowed over 27.5 in the last five home games, so I'm convinced they'll make life miserable to Nantes. Nantes didn't go over 27 in the last five away duels in Toulouse, 23 and 25 last season, and they're no more offensively oriented or powerful now than they were last year. Details

I lost a similar bet a few days ago (Zadar team under), but the circumstances were against me. The match fell apart pretty quickly and there was zero defense. Even then, Zadar had 79 points, only a few points over the 74.5 margin. That was all pretty meek, but the game in Zadar was completely different. Aggressive, eager on both sides, and the final moments only proved it. Cibona's captain Rozić hit Zadar's Bašić in the head, the audience insulted Cibona's players and their coach got pissed off. All of that only made things even more intense before this third and final game. Unlike the first one, I don't expect a blowout so Zadar should stay under the team margin set to 73.5. But because of the intensity and a possibility of a lot of throws in the last minutes, I think Zadar's team under after the first half is a better option. Statistically, that's not as attractive as a total under (Zadar hit 62, 65, 82 (in the Cup at home, ABA league with Cosey), 65, 72, 79 (in this blowout), and 73 against Cibona), while they had 37 and 42 after the first half in this series, 30 and 39 in the Championship, 42 in the Cup, 37 and 40 in ABA league. They hit 40 in Zagreb (ABA with Cosey), 30 championship, and 37 (first semis where the difference was 15 by the end of the first half, so the defenses weren't being played right). Like I said, the tensions are high, this is the game for the final which means playing against Cedevita, but still... The motivation is not questionable, Zadar aren't cream of the top offensive-wise (quite the opposite), Cibona will be eager from the get go. There's even more arguments for under this time than the first time. Details