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Okapi and Limburg played 6 head-to-head games last season and stayed under 170 points (166) just once. Coach Ibens took over from Dean over the summer. He has been Dean's assistant for years and has clearly kept the run and gun philosophy of his predecessor. They have done like that in preseason and then the championship started. They played the defense-oriented Brussels to 150 points and then Willebroek at 167 points. The game with Liege finished at 172 and the one with Spirou at 186. Limburg United are Okapi's copy when it comes to game style. They are at 165 points on average this season, mostly because of the Liege game (158) and Oostende at 157. Both of those teams are defense-oriented. They played Kormend in FIBA Europe Cup on Tuesday. The Hungarians won 100-85. I went with an over in Okapi and Limburg, once at 173,5 and 169,5. The realistic margin is at over 170 because in Belgium there are no teams faster than Okapi and Limburg. Details

Two last head-to-heads were played in the last two Final Fours in Koln. In the one for third place it was 26-25. In the finals it was 28-23. When it's very important or less important, it's tough. Today we have two teams with offensive problems. Barca's problem are young players not in the rhythm, and Veszprem's problem is a very unconvincing offense where Ilicic has a hard time for shots to open, and where a lot of things depend on Palmarsson and if he'll be able to find the pivots. And he won't find pivots today next to Sorhaind, Jiche and Morros. The Hungarians are arriving after 21-19 with Kiel, they recorded a draw 24-24 against Flensburg. Barca have 26-25 at home, and 28-27 in Flensburg. I hardly see this going over 50, let alone over 55... Details

Melsungen are more of a favorite here than the 1,5 odds suggest. They are the same team that trashed Lemgo here 31-22 and 37-24 in Kassel. Lemgo have not changed much since. Goal keeper Wyszomirski may be different but I don't think they can make the difference here.
Visitors have one of the top defenses in the league today. They are very big guys and I don't know what Kogut or Suton can do about it. Melsungen did not do well defensively in the opening matches but that is mostly because of Sjostrand's injury. He is back now and brings the team a lot of confidence. They trashed Stuttgart in the last round and I believe their winning run will continue. Details

People who set the odds are ignorant. Roma are stronger than last year, Bogliasco weaker, and that's Roma's advantage alone. Bogliasco lost a lot in Di Somma and center Alonso leaving, and three additions with another player who left makes them weaker. They managed to record a draw against Savona, but away games are going to be a problem this season. They were also a problem last season when they beat the two weakest teams, Sora and Florentia, with one point of difference. Roma beat Axquachiara in the Cup, last season at home they beat Napoli, Savona, and both of the clubs went to F6. They have to the favorites here, and we have the odds that they won't lose, which is a good way to go. Details

AEK are doing great in defense now. Their Slovenian coach has a recognizable style with defense-oriented defense. The team from Athens doesn't let go for 40 minutes. They conceded less points in the second half than in the first half on average. They played 4 official games so far. They first limited Koroivos to 57 in the Cup to win by 41. In the championship, they beat Apollon by 18 (limited them to 59). They limited Lavri home to 56 (won by 40), Szolnoki to 49 (+43) on Tuesday. They didn't let go in the second half as they allowed only 24 points, one less than in the first half. AEK have enough players, Zdovc uses a lot of them and it's no surprise their intensity doesn't drop as the game advances.
They will play Kymis who hit 93 points in the first round against Koroivos home. They won that by 23 but Koroivos aren't a representative team. They are among the main contenders for the relegation. They play fast and offense-oriented game. On the defensive end, they are very weak. They hit 69 points in the second round against Lavri, 62 in the Cup QFs against Aris. In preseason and earlier Cup stages, Kymis went over this margin but no opponents they played got even close to AEK defense-wise. Maybe only the AEK from Cyprus games can be compared. Kymis hit 71 and 64 points. They also played Panathinaikos and got limited to 59. Details

The first match showed what Acquachiara are up against this season. Verona crushed them in the middle of Napoli, and when we add to that the Cup in which they lost all three matches, it's clear this will be a tough season. Almost the entire last season's team left, nine new players arrived, but the quality dropped. Besides, they need to get into the rhythm even though they have a big coach leading them. Quinto ended the first in the second league last season, they got stronger, but they won't be able to reach the middle of the table. Despite that, they showed in the Cup that they can beat teams like Trieste last year, and at home they will be a tough nut. Acqachiara aren't a team who are easy to beat, and it's questionable if they will even manage. Last year, when they were stronger, the beat the weak Florentia +3, Roma +2, had a draw against Lazio, and lost to Ortigia. That's Quinto's range. Details