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Tips archive
  • Basketball 

    Central American Championship Virgin Islands - Costa Rica

  • Away team 1st quarter total points 13.5 tip: Under
    22.06.2016. 19:45
    Result: 75:68
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.15
    Min. odds: 1.70
    Last margin: >13.5
    Published: 22.06. 19:31
    Bookmaker:
     
    Costa Rica are the weakest team in Group B at the Centrobasket. They played three games so far (they have only this one left) and all three defeats were by over 20 points. I wouldn't go for the final handicap because of possible calculations by the Virgin Islands when they gain a lead, and they have an important game tomorrow against Dominican Republic. Virgin Islands defeated Bahamas, who are the closest to them in quality, in the first game 21-10 in the first quarter. Just for comparison, those same Bahamas defeated Costa Rica 27-4 in the first quarter. Costa Rica played 9-11 in the first quarter against Mexico, and Virgin Islands lost to Mexico 13-18. I am pretty sure that Virgin Islands' first quarter handicap will pass, it should be at 6-7 points, but Costa Rica's first quarter against Mexico does sound off an alarm for me (even though Mexico are not as good as they can be at this competition, at least in the beginning). But even better option for me is Costa Rica under 14.5 points. In three games at this tournament they scored 7 (Dominican Republic), 4 (Bahamas), and 9 (Mexico)in the first quarters. Virgin Islands conceded 10 against Bahamas (I repeat, after that the Bahamas defeated Costa Rica 27-4 in the first quarter) and 18 against Mexico who are stronger offensively than Costa Rica. I expect a good approach at the beginning, I cannot guarantee it later on, and games played so far support this pick. Both teams have some players that played at the 2012 Centrobasket and the Virgin Islands won that 92-64, 23-12 in the first quarter. Costa Rica are very, very thin offensively, I expect Virgin Islands to go strong from the start to solve the matter of the winners early on and focus on tomorrow's game against the Dominican Republic, and they definitely do not need any additionally wasting of energy with any complicating of the game, since they came here with only nine players. Details
  • Basketball 

    France 1 ASVEL - Monaco

  • Total points (OT incl.) 142.5 tip: Under
    29.05.2016. 20:30
    Result: 80:59
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.96
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.8
    Min. odds: 1.83
    Last margin: >140.5
    Published: 29.05. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    The margin is low, but I still think there is 'room' there. Let's start with the obvious, this is a series dominated by defenses and it is unlikely that will change ahead of the very important fourth game. This is ASVEL's match point for the finale, Monaco's last chance to get back in the series and get the fifth game. In the regular season, these two teams played games at 142 points (78-66 at Monaco) and 141 (67-74 at ASVEL). The first semi-final game at Monaco was at 140 points, the second one at 128, third at 123. The trend is obvious, as the games get more important, the defenses take over more. I watches the third game of the series, it is very hard to score. Both teams are playing great defense and if we have five out of five unders on this margin, then it doesn't make sense that in this game, the most important one, it will be different. Halftime under is also a good option (70, 62, 64, 74 with a foul at a three pointer with the sound of the siren so it should realistically have been 71 points, 57 - that were the points at halftimes in their head-to-heads). Also great statistically is Monaco team under at halftime - 33, 37 (with three free throws because of the foul on a three pointer), 29, 32 and 32 is what they scored against ASVEL at halftime, but I am still choosing the most conventional option - overall under. I think the difference between these options are minimal. This game is similar to the style of those against Dijon, Le Mans or Gravelines. Monaco has in those games - 129 (27-37 at halftime) away and 169 (55-47) at home with Gravelines, 124 (30-25) away and 150 (46-35) home with Dijon, and 153 (40-36) away and 148 (43-39) away against Le Mans. ASVEL have 136 (40-27) at home and 49-72 (25-43) away against Dijon, 142 (30-45) away and 115 (30-23) at home against Gravelines, and 148 (39-43) away and 146 (53-28) at home against Le Mans, Monaco went over in away games only against Le Mans, ASVEL at home also only against Le Mans. Details
  • Basketball 

    Croatia 1 Cibona - Zadar

  • Away team 1st half total points 35.5 tip: Under
    25.05.2016. 20:00
    Result: 80:71
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.15
    Min. odds: 1.70
    Last margin: >35.5
    Published: 25.05. 19:57
    Bookmaker:
     
    I lost a similar bet a few days ago (Zadar team under), but the circumstances were against me. The match fell apart pretty quickly and there was zero defense. Even then, Zadar had 79 points, only a few points over the 74.5 margin. That was all pretty meek, but the game in Zadar was completely different. Aggressive, eager on both sides, and the final moments only proved it. Cibona's captain Rozić hit Zadar's Bašić in the head, the audience insulted Cibona's players and their coach got pissed off. All of that only made things even more intense before this third and final game. Unlike the first one, I don't expect a blowout so Zadar should stay under the team margin set to 73.5. But because of the intensity and a possibility of a lot of throws in the last minutes, I think Zadar's team under after the first half is a better option. Statistically, that's not as attractive as a total under (Zadar hit 62, 65, 82 (in the Cup at home, ABA league with Cosey), 65, 72, 79 (in this blowout), and 73 against Cibona), while they had 37 and 42 after the first half in this series, 30 and 39 in the Championship, 42 in the Cup, 37 and 40 in ABA league. They hit 40 in Zagreb (ABA with Cosey), 30 championship, and 37 (first semis where the difference was 15 by the end of the first half, so the defenses weren't being played right). Like I said, the tensions are high, this is the game for the final which means playing against Cedevita, but still... The motivation is not questionable, Zadar aren't cream of the top offensive-wise (quite the opposite), Cibona will be eager from the get go. There's even more arguments for under this time than the first time. Details
  • Basketball 
  • 1st half total points 73.5 tip: Under
    24.05.2016. 19:00
    Result: 80:71
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.93
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.65
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Last margin: >72.5
    Published: 24.05. 12:00
    Bookmaker:
     
    I would never have gone with this tip if Ivkovic was still in charge at Efes, but things are different now that Caki is there. Efes started playing defense as the new coach gave players slightly different roles. They have not lost in five games since Caki took over and more importantly, they played very good defense in each of those. They never conceded over 71 in regulation time and limited Darussafaka to 71 in the last round of regular season. Team under at Darussfaka and their first half under were good options as well but I'm going with the first half total under in the end to avoid a blow out or something like that. I said many times that defense is Darussafaka's strong suit but that they can hit a lot of points if a chance for it presents itself (QF with Banvit for example) but I expect a tough game today. These teams played 4 games this season to finish at 86 and 77 at half time in the league (the first one relatively unimportant, the second one not important for Darussafaka). They finished the first half at 63 and 60 in EL and that is more important than the league games. I don't want to look back at Efes' games from EL since Ivkovic was in charge back then but Darussafaka's EL games do mean something. These are their half time results in the first round - 63 with Sassari home, 63 Brose away, 81 Unicaja away, 67 Sassari away, 61 Brosse home, 58 Unicaja home, 73 Maccabi home. Second round - 61 Unicaja away, 63 Efes away, 80 Panathinauikos away, 78 Zvezda, 72 Kuban away, 65 Unicaja, 60 Efes... We see a lot of unders in tough games with tough opponents or in the games they tried to slow the opponents down (Sassari).
    Efes open games a bit slower since Caki took over and that worries be a bit. They were at 77 home with Usak, 80 with TED away, 77 with Darussafaka home, 83 in the first one with Gazi, 66 in the second one. But I adjusted the stake to that. I expect the importance of the game to make both teams try hard for the start which is why the offensive ends shouldn't be very efficient. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Away team 1st half total points 34.5 tip: Under
    22.05.2016. 16:00
    Result: 77:62
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.15
    Min. odds: 1.72
    Last margin: >34.5
    Published: 22.05. 15:55
    Bookmaker:
     
    Defenses are in the forefront in this series. Actually, in their last three head-to-heads. In early May Galatasaray won a game at 141 points, and in the two quarter-final games 141 and 127 points were scored. Before that they played a Eurocup round of 16 game, in Izmir at 131 point and in the return fixture 158 with 93 scored by Galatasaray. Their first championship game was the only one with a lot points, but they did not play defense in that fame, it was a rather irrelevant game mid-way through the season. Everything I wrote tells us to bet on an under. I thought about the options for the overall under like I wrote about the previous game, but I am afraid that the same scenario as in Eurocup return fixture may happen, when Galata went over, and demolished Pinar. So the only viable option is Pinar's team under. It is set at 70.5 points, and I discarded that option for two reasons - possible dilution of the game or possible free throw finish. But the halftime team under seems like a great option. There is no fear of dilution, no penalty shoot-out finish, and no lack of motivation. This is the deciding game, the game of highest stakes, because the semi-final is on the line. Of their five head-to-heads, Pinar scored by the halftime: 52 (in the first championship game at a lot of points), 28 (league), 29 (first Eurocup game), 33 (Eurocup return fixture) and 29 and 24 in the quarter-final. This means that they were under this margin five out of six times. Galata have shown that they can be stopped, and Pinar do not have a great offense. They depend a lot offensively on Wright and Gabriel's three pointers, and these two are not in great form. This should stay under if Galatasaray play defense as good as they did in previous duels. And there is no reason they wouldn't. In similar games they conceded 35 at home to Strasbourg, and 23 away are significant. 25 at home against Bayern, there were a lot of points only in two games against Gran Canaria. In the Top 32 at home - Sassari 33, Szolnoki 34 and Zaragoza 33. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Total points (OT incl.) 152 tip: Under
    20.05.2016. 18:30
    Result: 62:65
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.87
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.35
    Min. odds: 1.83
    Last margin: >151
    Published: 20.05. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    The margin dropped by two points since yesterday, but I still see this as under. Pinar and Galata faced each other five times this season. The first one, here in Izmir, finished at 189 points, but that was an irrelevant game mid-way through the season, and such usually end at a lot of points in the Turkish championship. They played for an extra point back then, but I do not expect that today. After that, they played a Eurocup game here, it was a tough game at 131 point. Return fixture was played at 158 points, but Galata scored a lot of things then, scored 93 points and the game went over. It does not seem realistic to me today that a team will reach 90, I actually don't expect either team to reach 80. In the last two weeks, Pinar and Galata played two games, both ended at 141 points. That's their head-to-head games, 3-2 in favor of under at this margin, but there is an explanation for those two overs. Motivation is not in question today either, Pinar are in the lead 1-0, they will try to finish this. Coach Sarica mentions that they have to be at around 75 points offensively which means that they will try to win this with defense, to limit Galata to 70 or less points. Galatasaray have shown many times this season that they can play well defensively, especially in high stakes games. And such were both games against Pinar in the Eurocup round of 16 (they limited Pinar to 67 and 65 points). They limited Bayern in the quarter-final return fixture to 59, Strasbourg in the final to 66 and 67. Of the more important games, they only went over both times against Granca, but Granca and Pinar cannot be compared. If we don't count in the 'All Star' game against Turk Telekom, Galata have conceded 74, 67, 67, 71, 66 and 134 with overtime against the Turks in the last seven games. This is a game for the highest stake, and in my opinion it should be under 150. Details
  • Basketball 

    Croatia 1 Cibona - Zadar

  • Away team total points (OT incl.) 73.5 tip: Under
    18.05.2016. 17:00
    Result: 104:79
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 10/10
    Profit: -10
    Min. odds: 1.70
    Last margin: >73.5
    Published: 18.05. 16:56
    Bookmaker:
     
    This game should finish as an under overall and that was my original idea for a tip. I think that cannot go badly. We have 5 head-to-head games of this season, which is quite a lot. They finished at 115, 139 (both ABA league games), 157 in the Cup, and 141 and 144 (regular season). That is why I cannot understand how bookies came up with this 155-156 point margin. Probably because of convincing wins over other teams in the league for champions. However, I started thinking about other options as well. Especially team under at Zadar, but their under in the first half as well. Zadar hit 62, 65, 82, 65 and 72 points against Cibona this season. The 82 from the Cup is when they had Cosey and when things were different and when Zadar were ABA League level. They got limited to 65 points in both games in Zadar. Zadar's under at 74,5 points is a good thing as well so I ended up going with that even though first half under might be just as good. It might not be founded on stats (Zadar hit 37, 40 (in Zagreb), 45 (Cup), 30 (in Zagreb) and 39 in the first halves of head-to-head games) but it's still very good.

    The potential downside to this might be close finish or a blowout. But a blowout isn't very likely to happen. Even if it were, Zadar don't have enough offensive power to take advantage of the home team's relaxed attitude. A close finish doesn't have to necessarily mean a game that will be decided by a few points. Cibona beat their both home games more easily and Zadar got limited under 65 in both. I don't think they can go over 75 here. It's the first game and it's best of three so who ever wins is very close to losing overall. I expect a war on the floor. This is a sure thing unless Zadar have a crazy shooting night. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Total points (OT incl.) 148.5 tip: Under
    17.05.2016. 19:30
    Result: 77:76
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.88
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: -5
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Last margin: >147.5
    Published: 17.05. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    Looking for unders in the Turkish league is generally not the best idea but there are some rules. The teams don't really take the regular season extremely seriously but everything changes once the playoff starts and they start playing defense. Darussfaka have a reputation of being a defense-oriented team and I expect that to get even more obvious as the playoff starts. Banvit was extremely fast-paced at the start of the season but they are not without the main player for such a game - Fortson. They are not the same Banvit they were. Also, there are head-to-head games. They met three times this season. The game in Bandirma finished at 141 points, the one in the Cup on neutral grounds at 150 (Fortson hit 16) and the league game which Darussafaka hosted at 141. Darussafaka have players capable of stopping Banvit's top players Slaughter, Johnson and Moerman. Banvit proved they can be serious and disciplined a few times. Who ever loses this will immediately be faced with a wall. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Away team 1st half total points 36.5 tip: Under
    13.05.2016. 21:00
    Result: 88:77
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.91
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: -5
    Min. odds: 1.75
    Last margin: >36.5
    Published: 13.05. 20:50
    Bookmaker:
     
    I might still be affected by what Fenerbahce did to Real in EL quarterfinals but if they managed to limit on of Europe's top two offensive ends like that, I expect them to do the same to Laboral. Fener's coach Obradovic is top-level when it comes to tactics and that saw his team stop Real's back court. They limited Real to 29, 29 and 27 points in the first halves of those games, which sounds unreal. They allowed over 37,5 in Euroleague 11 out of 27 times and 4 times in 8 games against better opponents in the Turkish league. I wouldn't care about the Turkish league much. There are a few 'suspicious' games among those in Euroleague (43 Panathinaikos home, 45 Kuban home, 51 Darussafaka away, 39 Darussafaka home) but I think none of those will be close to this one when it comes to approach. This is EL semis after all. As for Laboral, the stats are not that great for me. They recorded overs in 15 games out of 27. The 'suspicious' games are Olympiacos away, Zalgiris home, Borse away and Barca home and all three in QF with PAO. I'll try and explain this. The Oly game was at the start of the season and they hit 22, 34 and 30 in the other three with them. The Zalgiris game was a blowout away and they had a 15-point lead by half time. The Brose game was the same home (19 points by half time), and Barca home and PAO in QFs are the game Causeur didn't play. He slows Laboral down. Laboral stay at under 37,5 in the first half in the seven games against all the relevant Spanish teams. Causeur is now back which will slow their offense a bit. It's important that Fener played brilliant defense in the most important games - those against Real. I can explain basically every over Laboral had in the first half this season, this game is extremely important and James and Adams won't spend so much time on the floor together, which makes Laboral's defense less strong. I decided for the first time under to avoid nerve-wrecking finish even though the total under at Laboral (74-75) is good as well. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Handicap (OT incl.) -6 tip: 1
    10.05.2016. 18:00
    Result: 90:71
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.15
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Last margin: >-7.5
    Published: 10.05. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    I think Darussafaka will not go full throttle in this game and that is why I'm going with this- Coach Mahmuti says he needs to rest some players for the playoffs, while power forward Harangody said they are focused on the playoffs even at practice sessions. That means their minds are already somewhere else, not on this game which is not important for them at all. They can afford to choose their opponents in the potential semis. A defeat for the visitors today woulds see Efes finish top table and if Harangody and others go past Banit, they will face today's opponents in the semifinals. That is a better option than meeting Fener, who would finish top table if Darussafaka beat Efes. It took me a while to decide whether to go with a sure win or a handicap but this is my reasoning behind this decision - if Darussafaka decide to tank this, they will not do it to lose by 2-3 goals. Besides, the home team have motivation because top table spot brings them home court advantage throughout the playoffs. We have 3-0 in head-to-head matches. They won the EL game here by 13 points. On top of everything, Efes got better after Ivkovic left and seem more serious, mostly in defense which is very important. They have enough talent to hit enough points anyway. Details
  • Basketball 

    Croatia 1 Alkar - Skrljevo

  • Total points (OT incl.) 155 tip: Under
    04.05.2016. 19:00
    Result: 73:75
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.88
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.4
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Last margin: >153.5
    Published: 04.05. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    I respect the fact this game means nothing to Alkar but it is super important for Skrljevo and I think this margin is set too high. I'm not even worried about Alkar not having anything to play for since they are quite modest on the offensive end and a lot on their team comes from aggressiveness and fierceness. They will not change that overnight and will not want to embarrass themselves home. Milacic said they will do the last three games properly and knowing him, he's not just saying it. Skrljevo are not such a good choice for an under but not many teams were productive in Sinj. I don't think they will be either. Milacic knows everything on their teams comes down to Rogic-Kus-Perkovic and they'll try and stop that. In the first h2h in Sinj, Alkar won 63-86. Skrljevo won the last one 78-74 in Skrljevo. That was the only really productive one. Vuskovic was in charge at Alkar back then, Skrljevo play differently home than away. Now the stats - Alkar have two overs in 13 home games at this margin. Those two were against Zagreb and Kvarner, who are very different from anyone else offense-wise. They have 8 unders in the last 10 games at this margin and 0-7 this season. Skriljevo have 8 unders and 5 overs, and 7 unders and 3 overs in the last 10 games. They have a total of 14 unders and 13 overs this season. The only result which does not fit is the game at 180 points against Zabok. The other overs (Zagreb, Gorica, Sibernik, Kvarner) make perfect sense. To be fair, let's mention the 155 against Jolly with 48 points in the last quarter. Those are a bit too many points for Jolly's style. To sum up, I think this wil not go towards 155+ points. The Alkar team under (live bet365) is a good choice as well at 80-81 points. They went over that only in a blowout against the weakened Osijek. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Total points (OT incl.) 163.5 tip: Over
    04.05.2016. 16:00
    Result: 87:101
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.92
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.6
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Last margin: >164.5
    Published: 04.05. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    The Turkish league is usually profitable when it comes to the over on points, and now we have a game that has no relevance and an acceptable margin to bet on. Selcuk have been relegated, but they have been aware of that for a while. With Christmas' arrival they improved their efficiency and changed their playing style a bit. Jefferson and Reynolds left ahead of the previous round, but even then they scored 81 point against Turk Telekom. In the last five games they went up to 182, 190, 142 (scored 60 at Pinar), 164 and 176 points. From the start of March (the last 9 games), Istanbul have 211 points against Turk Telekom, 161 against Yesil, 163 Trabzon, 164 Efes, 158 Gaziantep, 128 Fener ahead of Fener's series against Real where they used the same defeanse and limited Istanbul to 55, 183 against Usak, 162 against TED in a tight game for the stay in the league and now 171 against Darussafaka. I thought a lot about Istanbul's team over, which is at 85.5 because Selcuk often concede so much points, but in the end I decided for the overall over because I think that they will not be playing defenses today. The Turks rarely play defense even when the games have some relevance, today's game has no relevance, and the first game at 140 points in the regular season doesn't concern me one bit. That was a different Selcuk, which is crucial here. Istanbul's offensive potential is not disputable. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Total points (OT incl.) 151.5 tip: Under
    28.04.2016. 20:30
    Result: 89:80
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.95
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: -5
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Last margin: >148.5
    Published: 28.04. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    Monaco's games average 151,1 points (150,0 home, the last ten 146,3). Gravelines are 146,9 throughout the season. That is also their average when it comes to away games. They are at 146,5 in the last 10. Looking at the whole season, this margin is off by a point or two if we look at the arithmetic mean of Gravelines and Monaco's averages. Still, I think this is a mistake. This is a game between two very good defensive ends who can play top level defense. Both are physically powerful and that is what they build their game on. Monaco are on a 9-game winning run. They have been doing brilliantly on the defensive end on that run. They limited the opponents to under 70 points 7 times and allowed an average of 37,1 points. Gravelines have not done that well when it comes to defense. In the five games before the the win against Antibes, they conceded 10 points above the average and then limited Antibes to 59. They got back to what they do best and that bore fruit. They allow an average of points this season. Only Asvel have a better defense. The fact Monaco hit 80 on average could be a problem but they got that average up against Chalon, Rouen, Le Havre and such teams. They played Nanterre at 142 points, Le Mans at 134 in regulation time, 153 with overtime, Asvel at 142, Limoges at 146, Strasboug at 146, Dijon at 150, Antibes at 129. I mentioned teams similar to Gravelines. Gravelines have played at 132 against Nanterre good defense, 142 with Le Mans, 149 with Strasbourg in a blowout, 142 with Limoges, 128 with Dijon, 137 with Antibes. They even limited Chalon back in November at 55 points as visitors. The games finished at 133 points. I think this is not a match which would go towards 155+ points. Monaco are in race of securing top spot and might be without the offensively important Cooper today. Gravelines fight for Top 4 and that is why we know their approaches won't be easy-going. Details
  • Basketball 

    Croatia 1 Split - Zagreb

  • Total points (OT incl.) 158.5 tip: Under
    24.04.2016. 19:00
    Result: 68:50
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.93
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.65
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Last margin: >154.5
    Published: 24.04. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    I think this margin was made solely on Zagreb's play-off games in which they went over this margin in four out of seven games. In their defeats against Cedevita and Cibona, when they defeated Gorica, and now at Sibenik when they played without centers, fast and efficient. They went over against Kvarner after overtime. They were under only in tougher games, in which the opponents were more even. In the first game against Split they played at 147, against Kvarner at 140 in regulation time, against Zadar at 143. I expect an even game here as well (so do the bookmakers) and I don't see this going over 160 points. Since Skelin took over Split, they are disciplined, tactically more responsible and better defensively, so there are not many overs by his team on this margin, 6 in 24 games. Twice against Kastela, once against Sibenik, in the Cup against Kvarner, at Gorica, at home against Zadar. I think this can fail only if they have a crazy shooting night. They are playing for important points, this is their third game in 6 days. I don't think there will be any rushing. Split, lef by Skelin, faced Zagreb three times - 74-59 at Split, 90-67 and 75-72 at Zagreb. So, even that blowout was under. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Handicap (OT incl.) -9.5 tip: 1
    24.04.2016. 15:00
    Result: 73:69
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 2.11
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: -5
    Min. odds: 2.10
    Published: 24.04. 12:00
    Bookmaker:
     
    I know why I took this bet and why I decided for this handicap. Fenerbahce lost their first game against Efes in the league by 9 points. Since Efes slipped up against Gaziantep in the previous round, Fener have a clear situation ahead of them. Wins in the remaining four rounds, if today's is by 10 or more points, brings them first position at the end of regular season and home court advantage in the play-off until the end. OK, we can say that Fener are so strong that the advantage doesn't matter to them, but Obradovic is not the kind of coach to think that way. I am convinced he will go for that difference today. Can he reach it? I am sure he can. Fenerbahce recently faced Efes in Euroleague, it was a to be or not to be game for the away team, Fener had nothing left to play for. And they were in the lead by 18 three minutes before the end. They won by 4, but they were not chasing any difference back then. I am convinced, if they had needed it, that game would have gone over 20 point difference. Besides, we are talking about a team that defeated Real by 6 and 22 points at home, by 12 away. They are currently playing brutal basketball. Euroleague isn't until mid-May, they had time to recover from the game against Real. This Efes gave not bought me with anything this season, they are bad in defense, rely a lot to Heurtel in offense, nad Fener have 'pit bulls' in backcourt positions to defend against that. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Total points (OT incl.) 152.5 tip: Under
    22.04.2016. 20:00
    Result: 62:76
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 10/10
    Profit: +8.3
    Min. odds: 1.75
    Last margin: >150
    Published: 22.04. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    I went with an under at Charleville last round and it turned out well in spite of 44 points in the last quarter and 85 in the second half. And that says it all. The bookies offer Charlevile at over 150 points and I plan on taking advantage of that again. They improved defense massively in the last 4 games and limited the opponents to under 70 three times. The coach is talking about defense again and about the need of staying in focus in defense. That approach has been bearing fruit. Vichy are a team for unders. They might not be like St. Quentin, Vichy's last opponents, but they are not far from it either. They struggle productive teams but when it comes to these kind of opponents almost always finish with an under. They went under 153 in the last 5 away games and if we count the Cup game with Bourg in, have only three overs at 152 in the last 15 games. They finished on the margin with Roanne (152) and Hyeres (152). Every other game was an under. The first head-to-head finished at 142 points. Let's just also add that Charlevilla played Saint Quentin and Souffel in Leaders Cup group stage (teams which mostly record unders). ALl games finished under this margin (SQ at 148 and 145, Souffel at 142 and 140). Vichy have 21 unders at this margin in 29 games this season, 12-3 away, 7-3 in the last 10, there is also the h2h and Charleville's performances. I don't see any problems with this bet. Details
  • Basketball 

    Croatia 1 Zadar - Gorica

  • 1st half handicap -9.5 tip: 1
    22.04.2016. 19:00
    Result: 68:70
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: -5
    Min. odds: 1.72
    Last margin: >-10
    Published: 22.04. 18:53
    Bookmaker:
     
    Zadar's feet are on fire, and they'll go full force here. They have to solve the frustration from Trnsko, and after they've lost in Rijeka, they crushed Šibenik at home. Now Gorica is a good chance, too. The guests are a bit tired, and they have to play another duel in two days (Šibenik on Baldekin, where they can be more competitive), and Zadar will play Cibona on Sunday, which is even more important. So, even though the total handicap is a great option, I'll go for the half handicap because that's low enough. Zadar will go full force, try to solve this as soon as possible so they could spare their strength for Cibona. Zadar were beating Šibenik by 12 at the half-time, Split by 17, Zagreb by 10. They're A1 league, and matches that can be compared to this one. Gorica were losing by 13 to Split at the half-time, to Cibona by 28, and the only exception is -1 against Cedevita at home (but no one can figure out that match), and only -4 against Zagreb. I think Zadar should cover this no matter what. Details
  • Basketball 

    Croatia 1 Sibenik - Zagreb

  • Home team 1st half total points 38.5 tip: Under
    22.04.2016. 19:00
    Result: 86:90
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: -5
    Min. odds: 1.72
    Last margin: >37.5
    Published: 22.04. 18:53
    Bookmaker:
     
    It has just been confirmed that Sibenik's guard Basic won't play this game. He averaged 12,8 points per game in A-1 league and is this team's second best scorer. Their offense is quite weakened without him because they lose a lot of his three pointers. Vukicevic and Krajina have been out from before and Blace should not play either. Sibenik are left only with Petani and Badzim when it comes to more experienced and better-quality players. I don't see a way for them to get over the point margin of 77-78 but since there is a chance of a blowout, I'll go with the safer option and Sibenik at Under 38,5 at half time. The game should be somewhat open until then. Sibenik hit 39 in the first half against Zagreb in A-1 team but with Basic, Vukicevic and Blace on the team. They hit 45 against Gorica, 34 against Cibona, 36 against Zadar, 40 against Kvarner, 30 Split and 25 Cedevita. Only the result against Gorica looks suspicious but given their opponents today, Sibenik should stay under this margin. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Total points (OT incl.) 151.5 tip: Under
    16.04.2016. 20:00
    Result: 67:77
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.96
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: +4.8
    Min. odds: 1.80
    Last margin: >148.5
    Published: 16.04. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    The first head to head went sky-high but I'm sure that won't happen again. They played two group stage games in Leaders Cup ahead of this season. Saint Quentin was the first one away 83-65 (a blowout), while Charleville won the second one 75-70 away. Both of those were unders. Saint Quentin have the third best defense in the league which allows an average of 71,3 points. They have 22 under and 5 overs at this margin this season (11-2 home, 8-2 in the last 10). Charleville's stats are not even close to that but here's why I'll go with them today. They played very good defense in the last three games to allow 68 (fast-paced Orcies), 76 (increasingly faster-paced Lille) and 62 (Roanne, the fastest of the three). The coach is talking about defense a lot, saying he expects the team to keep it up. That is why I think this 151,5 margin is off. Charleville played at 145 points with Denain, 142 with Vichy, 131 with Souffel, 146 with Lille. Those are teams similar to Quentin. They also have an under at 144 points against Bourg. The 'suspicious' results here are the ones against Hyeres and le Portel where they allowed a lot of points. But both of those teams are very good in offense. SQ are not great when it comes to that. They hit 70,3 points per game and have the worst offense in the league after Souffel (70,2). This is an important game which should stay under. Details
  • Basketball 
  • Total points (OT incl.) 155.5 tip: Under
    09.04.2016. 19:00
    Result: 81:85
    Tipster Legolas17
    Odds: 1.83
    Stake: 5/10
    Profit: -5
    Min. odds: 1.75
    Last margin: >154.5
    Published: 09.04. 11:44
    Bookmaker:
     
    I think this margin is partly the consequence of the first h2h between these teams, which finished at 190 points. Milacic was in charge at Jolly back then but he didn't do very well and got sacked. Ever since Velic took over, Jolly changed their game. There is no fast paced for them now and this margin is definitely too high for Jolly. They stayed under this margin in 9 games since Velic took over. Skrljevo do try to play a faster paced game even though they do not play brilliant offense. But, they have proven that result is more important than impression in the last three rounds. They got better in defense when it was important and stayed under in the last three games, even in the one against Sibenik home in which they hit 85 points. The game in Kastela afterwards finished at 146, the one in Split at 147. Velic had a debut at Jolly against Skrljevo and that game finished at 143 points. This is a very important game and I don't expect anyone to rush into anything. Kus might not play at Skrljevo, which is a good thing for this bet as well. The potential blowout is not a good thing. Jolly were decimated in the last rounds but they had a 3-week break and I think they should be well-rested even if there are only 7-8 players on the team. Details
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Events started
Football  Uruguay - Ghana

Handicap +0 T: 1

HRO: 1.67S: 5/10P: ?

 
Football  Panama - El Salvador

Handicap -0.5 T: 1

HRO: 1.65S: 5/10P: ?

 
Tenis  B. Bencic - A. Kiick (2:6 6:6)

Games handicap -5,5 T: 1

SeekerO: 1.92S: 5/10P: ?

 
Tenis  C. Berlocq - M. Vilella Martinez (5:7 4:3)

Games handicap -4,5 T: 1

SeekerO: 1.93S: 5/10P: ?

 
Football  Brazil - Japan

Handicap +1 T: 1

HRO: 1.91S: 5/10P: ?

 
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Statistics
The Betprepare tipsters have a two-year experience of giving tips on regional betting website Dvoznak.com (the predecessor of Betprepare.com). You can see their overall stats and individual stats for each tipster here. *The number of complete or partial voids is shown in the brackets next to the number of winning tips
Last 50
Success rate: 27 (1) / 50
Stake / Return: 252 / 251.45 (-0.55)
ROI: -0.2%
Overall
Success rate: 5928 (236) / 10260
Stake / Return: 49979 / 53814.36 (3835.36)
ROI: + 7.7%
By months
Month Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
2018/11 34 19 5.90 + 3.4
2018/10 66 38 (3) 5.55 + 1.7
2018/09 45 28 (3) 18.05 + 8.1
2018/08 36 20 (3) -15.40 -8.6
2018/07 17 12 21.88 + 29.2
2018/06 31 21 36.95 + 23.5
2018/05 42 24 9.79 + 4.7
2018/04 44 25 2.45 + 1.1
2018/03 31 15 -16.35 -10.2
2018/02 40 22 (2) -6.20 -3.1
2018/01 32 20 24.95 + 15.1
2017/12 40 20 -18.35 -7.8
2017/11 47 29 (2) 22.86 + 9.1
2017/10 52 31 19.05 + 6.9
2017/09 92 55 (1) 24.90 + 5.0
2017/08 54 26 (1) -27.75 -9.1
2017/07 107 63 22.79 + 3.6
2017/06 49 34 (2) 66.58 + 21.7
2017/05 51 28 -14.95 -4.6
2017/04 56 34 (2) 45.40 + 11.4
2017/03 64 43 (2) 77.40 + 18.6
2017/02 48 31 (1) 49.95 + 15.8
2017/01 50 32 (1) 62.55 + 16.0
2016/12 45 24 (1) -3.80 -1.2
2016/11 66 42 (1) 95.95 + 21.3
2016/10 93 63 (1) 111.65 + 22.8
2016/09 84 46 -7.80 -1.8
2016/08 75 51 (1) 91.00 + 23.3
2016/07 74 48 81.34 + 20.5
2016/06 84 47 26.45 + 5.9
2016/05 124 70 (1) 19.00 + 2.8
2016/04 157 84 (4) -32.17 -3.6
2016/03 178 113 (4) 141.85 + 13.9
2016/02 178 103 (3) 133.15 + 13.9
2016/01 199 110 (3) 28.38 + 2.8
2015/12 184 110 (2) 111.71 + 11.8
2015/11 312 170 (4) 42.15 + 2.7
2015/10 313 196 (4) 267.22 + 17.2
2015/09 194 112 (4) 70.23 + 7.5
2015/08 133 75 (2) 31.03 + 4.8
2015/07 210 118 (7) 47.78 + 4.7
2015/06 149 88 (3) 86.40 + 12.3
2015/05 241 115 (8) -150.52 -13.1
2015/04 275 156 (10) 53.57 + 4.0
2015/03 298 171 (10) 83.10 + 5.7
2015/02 313 195 (11) 230.50 + 15.5
2015/01 328 194 (6) 216.65 + 13.8
2014/12 232 128 (1) 40.01 + 3.6
2014/11 330 195 (8) 183.56 + 12.0
2014/10 318 171 (6) 20.89 + 1.4
2014/09 288 157 (9) 26.21 + 2.0
2014/08 201 106 (7) -30.06 -3.4
2014/07 222 118 (3) -8.40 -0.8
2014/06 219 126 (2) 118.05 + 12.2
2014/05 318 177 (6) 92.28 + 6.4
2014/04 301 169 (7) 78.45 + 5.8
2014/03 357 225 (6) 300.96 + 18.6
2014/02 333 177 (7) 18.36 + 1.2
2014/01 330 206 (12) 246.30 + 16.6
2013/12 287 170 (8) 147.95 + 11.4
2013/11 334 196 (13) 113.97 + 7.7
2013/10 445 249 (12) 130.07 + 6.7
2013/09 269 165 (14) 165.71 + 14.6

Tipsters

Tipster Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Bacos 608 376 (6) 455.50 + 16.0
Pedja16 1275 726 (21) 427.72 + 6.4
Marko 642 394 (7) 403.22 + 12.5
Ino 401 239 (3) 266.70 + 12.1
Goran 654 379 (6) 234.88 + 7.2
Juraj 250 158 (1) 227.68 + 16.8
Spužva 277 172 (9) 173.50 + 13.1
Doublem 246 155 (14) 150.65 + 12.8
Green 152 91 (1) 114.49 + 15.0
Chacho 77 54 (1) 112.84 + 28.4
Al Pacino 200 115 (1) 98.43 + 10.3
Seeker 527 293 (22) 87.97 + 3.5
Hans 115 71 (2) 60.24 + 9.9
Blaf 103 65 (4) 45.53 + 8.2
Agger 49 29 27.65 + 11.3
Chamakh 21 14 21.87 + 21.2
Makas 61 36 (1) 18.30 + 5.8
Viking 24 16 17.55 + 12.1
Nik24 29 19 (1) 15.55 + 9.4
Hrvi 42 23 7.10 + 3.1
Tim 8 5 4.94 + 13.4
Tomo 101 57 (2) 3.17 + 0.6
Matko 65 33 (3) -12.07 -4.2
HR 69 37 (3) -32.57 -9.4
Tipster Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Goran 10 7 20.35 + 58.1
Viking 3 3 11.00 + 73.3
Agger 9 6 10.95 + 24.3
Makas 6 4 6.00 + 20.0
Tim 1 1 4.55 + 91.0
HR 10 6 3.75 + 7.5
Tomo 1 1 3.50 + 70.0
Blaf 2 1 -1.20 -12.0
Seeker 3 2 (1) -1.25 -8.3
Spužva 4 2 -1.45 -7.3
Juraj 12 6 -4.60 -7.7
Hrvi 5 2 -7.35 -29.4
Pedja16 6 2 -8.50 -24.3
Ino 3 0 -15.00 -100.0
Marko 5 1 -20.95 -69.8
Inactive tipsters +
Tipster Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Kaziyski 493 276 230.27 + 10.1
Richardson 342 199 (4) 134.87 + 7.6
Omar 236 130 (12) 98.06 + 10.7
Toni 197 110 (6) 62.26 + 7.1
Kapetan 67 41 58.20 + 14.2
Medo 189 106 (2) 48.69 + 5.9
Dompa 80 48 (4) 32.62 + 9.8
Ivan 119 72 (15) 19.33 + 3.7
Damir 112 62 (7) 13.29 + 2.5
Ufo 9 6 7.74 + 22.1
Fantaz 104 57 (3) 2.74 + 0.5
Tompa 2 1 0.55 + 6.1
Boris 18 9 -2.92 -4.2
Jackie 3 1 -5.60 -43.1
Rujimir 17 8 -10.52 -14.8
Dado 3 0 -15.00 -100.0
BlackMamba 5 1 -15.85 -63.4
Jayson 6 1 (1) -19.00 -82.6
Ceginho 35 17 (2) -26.36 -14.0
Karabaja 172 92 (12) -40.35 -5.5
BoleTop 148 74 (3) -53.95 -7.6

By sport

Sport Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Football Football 1440 801 (74) 171.57 + 2.7
Basketball Basketball 3169 1827 (33) 1213.29 + 7.5
Handball Handball 2168 1305 (32) 1232.04 + 11.1
Ice hockey Ice hockey 454 261 (16) 112.97 + 5.9
Water polo Water polo 75 44 39.60 + 10.5
Volleyball Volleyball 1009 573 (1) 580.02 + 12.4
Tennis Tennis 1662 945 (71) 357.10 + 4.5
Futsal Futsal 115 72 (2) 67.59 + 11.2
American football American football 121 77 (4) 81.95 + 14.7
Baseball Baseball 6 1 (1) -19.00 -82.6
Sport Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Football Football 16 10 8.85 + 11.1
Basketball Basketball 37 16 -38.45 -19.7
Handball Handball 21 14 27.50 + 30.6
Tennis Tennis 3 2 (1) -1.25 -8.3
American football American football 3 2 3.15 + 21.0

Top 15 competitions

League Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Handball: Norway 1 Norway 1 96 65 139.00 + 28.0
Handball: Germany 1 Germany 1 195 119 (6) 113.52 + 11.2
Handball: France 1 France 1 127 76 (1) 106.95 + 16.5
Handball: Denmark 1 Denmark 1 101 66 (1) 106.44 + 20.0
Basketball: Euroleague Euroleague 299 171 (5) 102.43 + 6.5
Football: Friendly Club Friendly Club 58 43 100.98 + 32.5
Volleyball: France 1 France 1 91 57 92.30 + 20.9
American football: NFL NFL 121 77 (4) 81.95 + 14.7
Basketball: France 2 France 2 61 41 78.38 + 26.0
Basketball: Spain 1 Spain 1 221 127 78.09 + 6.7
Basketball: Belgium 1 Belgium 1 67 43 77.67 + 22.5
Basketball: NBA NBA 162 97 (4) 77.63 + 9.9
Basketball: Greece 1 Greece 1 114 69 (2) 75.05 + 12.5
Handball: Croatia 1 Croatia 1 27 21 72.78 + 49.5
Handball: Germany 1 Germany 1 73 47 70.37 + 20.0
Handball: Austria 1 Austria 1 39 28 66.27 + 32.0
Basketball: Croatia 1 Croatia 1 92 57 (1) 58.95 + 12.4
Basketball: Poland 1 Poland 1 81 51 54.87 + 13.8
Volleyball: Germany 1 Germany 1 24 18 52.01 + 42.6
Basketball: International Friendly International Friendly 10 10 51.70 + 89.1
League Tips Succ. Profit ROI%
Basketball: Italy 1 Italy 1 4 4 16.20 + 81.0
Handball: Spain 1 Spain 1 3 3 11.95 + 79.7
Basketball: France Cup France Cup 2 2 9.20 + 92.0
Basketball: Denmark 1 Denmark 1 2 2 8.60 + 86.0
Handball: EC 2020 qualification EC 2020 qualification 2 2 8.30 + 83.0
Basketball: NBA NBA 1 1 4.65 + 93.0
Football: WC Qualification Europe WC Qualification Europe 1 1 4.60 + 92.0
Football: Bolivia Clausura Bolivia Clausura 1 1 4.55 + 91.0
Handball: SEHA SEHA 1 1 4.20 + 210.0
Handball: France 1 France 1 1 1 4.15 + 83.0
Football: CONCACAF CONCACAF 1 1 4.10 + 82.0
Football: Africa Cup of Nations Qualification Africa Cup of Nations Qualification 1 1 3.80 + 76.0
Handball: Friendly Games Friendly Games 1 1 3.75 + 75.0
Handball: Germany Cup Germany Cup 1 1 3.70 + 74.0
Football: England FA Cup England FA Cup 1 1 3.40 + 68.0
Football: Norway 2 Norway 2 1 1 3.35 + 67.0
Handball: Sweden 1 Sweden 1 2 1 3.30 + 55.0
Football: Denmark 2 Denmark 2 1 1 3.20 + 64.0
American football: NFL NFL 3 2 3.15 + 21.0
Basketball: Argentina Torneo 20 Argentina Torneo 20 2 1 2.80 + 18.7

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