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Basketball » Croatia 1 (M), 8. round
04.05.2016. 19:00 Finished
Alkar - Skrljevo (73:75)
Total points (OT incl.) 155 tip: Under   Legolas17
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.88 5/10 1.80 153.5 Pinnacle
I respect the fact this game means nothing to Alkar but it is super important for Skrljevo and I think this margin is set too high. I'm not even worried about Alkar not having anything to play for since they are quite modest on the offensive end and a lot on their team comes from aggressiveness and fierceness. They will not change that overnight and will not want to embarrass themselves home. Milacic said they will do the last three games properly and knowing him, he's not just saying it. Skrljevo are not such a good choice for an under but not many teams were productive in Sinj. I don't think they will be either. Milacic knows everything on their teams comes down to Rogic-Kus-Perkovic and they'll try and stop that. In the first h2h in Sinj, Alkar won 63-86. Skrljevo won the last one 78-74 in Skrljevo. That was the only really productive one. Vuskovic was in charge at Alkar back then, Skrljevo play differently home than away. Now the stats - Alkar have two overs in 13 home games at this margin. Those two were against Zagreb and Kvarner, who are very different from anyone else offense-wise. They have 8 unders in the last 10 games at this margin and 0-7 this season. Skriljevo have 8 unders and 5 overs, and 7 unders and 3 overs in the last 10 games. They have a total of 14 unders and 13 overs this season. The only result which does not fit is the game at 180 points against Zabok. The other overs (Zagreb, Gorica, Sibernik, Kvarner) make perfect sense. To be fair, let's mention the 155 against Jolly with 48 points in the last quarter. Those are a bit too many points for Jolly's style. To sum up, I think this wil not go towards 155+ points. The Alkar team under (live bet365) is a good choice as well at 80-81 points. They went over that only in a blowout against the weakened Osijek.
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