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Cervantes has been doing a good job. After a few successful challengers, he used a few chances at ATP level but mostly against players outside of Top 50. He didn't do great against players of better quality (expect for Kyrgios in Estoril in what was Kyrgios' first clay court match). We need to note that Kohlschreiber beat him by 6 games, Carreno by 6, 10 and 4 and Vesely by 8. All of those happened on his favorite surface (clay court). When it comes to the wins, only the one over Delbonis from Sao Paolo stands out. Thiem is better than all of them and what he did last week suggests we can expect some great things of him. Grantd, he played the final on Saturday and apparently had some shoulder problems but he said that he would be fully fit for RG. I expect him to start fierce and try and save some energy. He beat Almagro in Australia by 11 games and has wins over Mannarino (by 8 games), Seppi (by 6) and Sousa (by 7). All of them are better than Cervantes, who is now playing only his second Grand Slam ever. I expect Thiem to win two sets by double breaks and that is why this handicap seems like an option we shouldn't miss out on.