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Basketball » Euroleague (M), 7. round
27.11.2014. 19:00 Finished
Crvena zvezda - Neptunas (79:62)
Total points (OT incl.) 160.5 tip: Under   Pedja16
Odds Stake Min. odds Last margin Bookmaker
1.94 6/10 1.80 158 Pinnacle
This pick might not seem to make a lot of sense at first, but I'll do my best to try and explain why I think this margin is a bit too high. Neptunas are an offense-oriented team, that's right, but they are not as productive away as they are home. They lost to Kuxta away 88-69 and to Galatasaray 94-68. They are 21st best team in Euroleague when it comes to three point efficiency (there are 24 teams in total). Zvedza are the worst team when it comes to three pointers in the competition with 29%. They break the opponents home with tough defense - beat Galatasaray, Valencia, and managed to stay close to Olympiacos. Their three point efficiency in those three games was as follows: 3/19, 5/15 i 3/16, with the games ending at 144, 139, and 119 points, respectfully. Zvezda have played 10 home games in Eurocup and Euroleague this and last season. Only three of those finished at over 160 points (Bilbao, Rytas, Lokomotiv). Neptunas are not the kind of team that can score 80 points away and Zvezda have limited all of their tough home games well under 160 points. Jenkins and Marjanovic talk about defense only. The visitors talk about full focus in defense, knowing that they can't count on offense efficiency too much. Both teams are 3-3, which makes this a very important game. Naptunas have away games in Belgrade against Zvezda, in Valencia and in Greece against Olympiacos till the end, and meet Galatasaray home. The home win might not be enough to secure a spot in the next round and Neptunas need to get points away. Zvezda don't have great shooters like other teams that were very efficient against Neptunas - they need a lot of hard work in defense to be able to create attempts in offense.
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