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Zalgiris' captain went over this margin ten times during this Euroleague campaign, with seven other games in under (Real twice, UNICS twice, Barcelona, Efes, and Galatasaray once). All of those teams, except for Galatasaray play great defense. He finished with 5 and 2-for-6 from the floor and no free-throws in the home defeat to the Turkish side, which was just one out of three games (played 17 in Euroeague this season) in which he didn't have any free throws. The situation for an over is very good today. Zalgiris will have to do without center Guaitis, which means they are left with Javtokas at five. His age (34) suggests he won't be able to cope with this kind of a game, which means Songaila or Jankunas are expected to step in. Songaila is more likely to be given that task but Jankunas might get a few minutes as well when Zalgiris play small-ball. Anyhow, he will get plenty of time at power forward position (29 in the first head-to-head) and will have a favorable matchup. Erceg is not good in defense and Jankunas should be able to take advantage of that. The Turkish team are not playing good defense lately and that is just another argument for this bet. Some shops offer a half a point better margin.