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Panathinaikos lost two games in Thessaloniki and everything will come down to these 40 minutes. Motivation is extremely high, as the fact they forgave the three 'sinners' from Thessaloniki suggests. Even their controversial president says that incident should be forgotten about and that unity is the key now.

Panathianikos covered this handicap in the first two home games of the series (+7 i +14) even though they were not nearly as careful or motivated as they will be today. As for the earlier games, they had a 20-point lead in one after the first half. Granted, Aris were not great back then. PAO had just +1 in the Cup before trashing them in the second half. PAO's approach was not even close to the one they will have today. That second half is just a confirmation that Pao are capable of winning a half by 20 points when completely serious. Also, this PAO are more powerful now than they were back then.
The team from Athens had a few crises this season. The biggest one was after the defeat in Peareus when they responded with 19 wins in 20 games and displayed character. The knock-out to Laboral was a new shock so the coach got sacked. PAO hosted Kolossos at the start of the playoffs and had a 34-14 lead after just one quarter (+18 at half time). I expect their reaction today.

Aris did great things this season but mostly home. They will not have much of a say here. Also, this is the 5th game in 10 days which is more of a problem for his players. When their energy is not top level, they struggle, especially against tough teams. The best example for that was early January when they play a few away games and recorded conviction defeats in Athens, Milan and Berlin. Zdovc's AEK were by 22 and 16 points down in away games in Piareus in playoffs after the first half. I don't see Aris keeping the deficit under 10 here.