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This game should finish as an under overall and that was my original idea for a tip. I think that cannot go badly. We have 5 head-to-head games of this season, which is quite a lot. They finished at 115, 139 (both ABA league games), 157 in the Cup, and 141 and 144 (regular season). That is why I cannot understand how bookies came up with this 155-156 point margin. Probably because of convincing wins over other teams in the league for champions. However, I started thinking about other options as well. Especially team under at Zadar, but their under in the first half as well. Zadar hit 62, 65, 82, 65 and 72 points against Cibona this season. The 82 from the Cup is when they had Cosey and when things were different and when Zadar were ABA League level. They got limited to 65 points in both games in Zadar. Zadar's under at 74,5 points is a good thing as well so I ended up going with that even though first half under might be just as good. It might not be founded on stats (Zadar hit 37, 40 (in Zagreb), 45 (Cup), 30 (in Zagreb) and 39 in the first halves of head-to-head games) but it's still very good.

The potential downside to this might be close finish or a blowout. But a blowout isn't very likely to happen. Even if it were, Zadar don't have enough offensive power to take advantage of the home team's relaxed attitude. A close finish doesn't have to necessarily mean a game that will be decided by a few points. Cibona beat their both home games more easily and Zadar got limited under 65 in both. I don't think they can go over 75 here. It's the first game and it's best of three so who ever wins is very close to losing overall. I expect a war on the floor. This is a sure thing unless Zadar have a crazy shooting night.