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The Swedes were studiously getting ready for this, playing three games against teams far better than Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan were focused on the existential matters more - the players haven't been paid for six months, and refused to go to Tbilisi three days before the match. All the matches that were planned were cancelled, the coach Jalalov was fighting the administration and their practices, if they can be called that, were bad. They managed to solve the problem one day before the trip, but the local press are saying things are far from over, and the atmosphere is bad in the national team. Nobody was even thinking about Sweden. They also lost Kovalenko, the key player who has no good substitute. Their coach Jalalov is 29 years old, so his experience could be questioned, too. The Swedes are without Nilsson, but his substitute Larsson is more than good, so the points handicap went from -19.5 to -17.5, but that's just because the importance of Nilsson's absence is overexaggerated. Azerbaijan have problems far bigger to deal with than that. Also, Sweden crushed Azerbaijan by 27 points total two years ago when Nilsson was playing, when the handicap was set to -23.5. It's hard to draw parallels with that game, but I'd say that handicap could work today, and Sweden could win this by +22 easily. Team's under for Azerbaijan is a good pick, too, but the points handicap is a better option, unless Azerbaijan don't make one set complicated.