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This is a big derby with high stakes. The prize is the first place, so we can expect the right approach from both sides. Lugi are currently the best defense team of the league who allow 23 goals per match. Alingsas aren't weaker, they allow only one goal more per match. Lugi so far are on an average of 51 goals per match, but that average is raised due to matches against Aransas and IFK Ystad. Aransas was crushing, and the only real fail was against IFK Ystad where they underestimated the opponents. Alingsas have bigger numbers, but there's a good reason. They crushed a few weaker teams where they pumped up the statistics, and then there's the derby against the fast Savehof. When some matches are removed, which are not as important for this one, then they're on much more "normal" numbers. Additionally, Lugi this season had three derbies and none went over this margin. And when we know that last season these two teams played at 47 goals, and two years ago a matter of life and death match, then we have not much left today but to go for an under.