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I was very surprised by the 1.44 at Braga (I expected the realistic 1.20-1.25) as well as the handicap at 2.5 and I simply have to use it. Braga are in excellent shape, they're on an 8-championship game winning run, and each next win is very important in the battle for the best placement before the playoffs, so their motive shouldn't be doubted. At home their record is 6-0-2, they lost to Sporting and Porto, and the five out of six wins came with a double-digit difference, plus the one of +6 over Fafeo. It's worth mentioning the +10 over Avanc who are quality-wise on the rank of Madeira.

Madeira's away record this season is 6-0-4, but no win came against a team similar to Braga. They lost with -3 to Maia, and then we have the three important away losses. Against Aquas, who are equal to them, they were at -5, against Benfica -7, Sporting -8. Both teams are in Braga's rank. Madeira do have the quality, but they're lacking for the leading four (Porto, Sporting, Braga, Benfica), and I will show that by comparing the results of this and last season (of course, the more important ones are Madeira's away matches in which they're a bit weaker than when they're at home).

This season Madeira has -3 at home against Poto (30-33) when Porto solved the game early and rested afterwards because that weekend they had an important game against Bregenza. The season before that in away games they have two defeats of -6 (29-23) and -8 (27-19). With Benfica this season at home they remained at -3 (27-30), and in away games they have the mentioned -7 (27-20). The season before that they have -10 (40-30) and -6 (29-23). They lost to Sporting this season in an away game with -8 (34-26), last season they won with 29-28. That's the only result which doesn't favor this bet, but when I mention that for Sporting last season Ruesga, Bozovic, Nikcevic, Kopco, Asanin, Zabic and co. didn't play, then it's clear that the game isn't relevant. In the end, this season they lost to Braga at home with -6 (30-36). In an away game last season -8 (35-27) and -3 (29-26).

It's clear that Madeira can't stand up to the best. Braga completed their roster, injured players returned and there's no doubt that they're the bigger favorites than the booking houses are trying to show. For me there's no doubt, Braga can win with at least +5 and I expect that to happen. Everything else would be a surprise. In the end I'll just mention that in head-to-heads Braga have seven wins at home in a row, out of which six are well over this very low handicap. The last one ended with 35-27, I think it's going to be similar today.