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Ulm are going into the great Bundesliga derby undefeated, their record is 25-0, and if they would win today, they would secure the top spot ahead of the play-off. They broke Bundesliga record in straight wins in a season. But every winning run has to end eventually, and I think Ulm's will end tonight. There is no team in Bundesliga that can count on points in Bamberg, especially when Brose are completely focused on the championship, since they cannot reach the play-off in the Euroleague. Coach Trinchieri dosed the playing time of their key players in Milan, he said the focus is on Sunday. The numbers show how dominant Brose are in at home in the championship. They haven't lost to Ulm at home since 2008, they recorded 14 straight wins with average 20.7 point difference. Brose have not lost at home, in the Cup and championship, in two years, they are on a 37 game winning run. Their home record in the championship this season is 12-0, they defeated Bayern 90-59, they had some less convincing performances, but that was all in the period when their focus was on Euroleague.
Ulm are undefeated, but they have been less convincing away than at home. In the Cup quarter-final they lost at Ludwigsburg, they were lucky to win at Bayreuth and Oldenburg in overtime. Their form is slowly dropping which is proved by their latest unconvincing performance against Alba at home, and they defeated bottom-placed Rasta by only 5.
Of course it is not in Ulm's interest to lose, but it is important to point out that every defeat by less than 15 points is a positive result for them. In that case, they could afford another defeat in the remaining 6 rounds, under the condition that Brose win all the remaining games. Considering Trinchieri's mentality, and Brose's character, I am sure they will not be happy with just a win, they will want to win by over 15 points. I think they are capable of achieving that.