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AEK's coach, Jure Zdovc, says ahead of every Champions League game that they are going for the win, that it's their most important game. Today's game against Ludwigsburg is really their most important game. AEK are at 6-5 record, they compromised their situation with bad away performances, and if they lose today, they cannot count on the second position and direct advancement, their situation would complicate even more, and their advancement would come into question. AEK showed this season that they are home court oriented, it's not easy for anyone to play at their arena, so of the 11 official games, they lost only one, to the leaders of the group, Besiktas, who obviously don't suit them. AEK lost at Ludwigsburg in a tight finish, I expect the Greeks to be much more determined today. On Saturday, at home, they defeated Aris, who have been in great form, by 20 points, and in the Champions League they recently defeated Spirou by 20, Partizan by 10, Sassari by 20, and they concede less than 70 points on average at home. The great news is that they are complete, Vasileiadis is back, Mavroeidis is fully fit, and new center Elonu is clearly a real reinforcement.
Ludwigsburg have been good in the Champions League, they secured their advancement, they are still fighting for the second position, but they are not as convincing away as they are at home. In the Champions League they lost at Stelmet and Partizan, won at Sassari. This entire season, if we look at difficult away games, they did not fare well. They lost by 17 at Ulm and Bayreuth, and by 29 at Bayern, plus these two Champions League defeats.
Considering AEK's defensive performances at home, a solid option here is a team under on the Germans, but even better option is the Greek's win in handicap because they will not only go for the win, they will want to win by over five to have a better head-to-head record against Ludwigsburg and that way stay in the battle for the second position in the group.