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There are several reasons why we should bet on home team's win here and for a higher stake. Ajaccio won the Cup last season, that was their first trophy ever and there is some sentimental value there. Coach Ferrandez said several times that the Cup is their priority, and they showed that in the competition so far. Home court is a big advantage for them, even in less important games, and since today's game is one of the most important in the season, the arena is sold out. They are still having some injury problems, but the situation is stabilizing. Mijailovic got a chance in the last game, Siirila has been fit for 2 weeks, and Petreas could also be back, so only Miranda and Morgando are out. Even in their worst crisis, 15-16 days ago, Ajaccio defeated Toulouse with only 9 players 3-2 away. If we look further, we will see that Ajaccio won the last 5 games and that Toulouse have not won their head-to-head since 2014. Toulouse cannot count on Zagonel today, their captain and most experienced player, and Basic is not completely fit after shoulder injury. Ajaccio's record at home this season is 10-1, they defeated Tours, Chaumont, Toulouse here. Actually their home record is 23-4 if we count in last season, while Toulouse's 2-5 away this season (8-13 with last season) does not seem convincing. Of course both teams are dreaming of the big final in Paris, but Ajaccio seem much closer to that than Toulouse.