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Lithuanian Cup quarter-final couldn't have come in worse time for Neptunas. It is played on a single win, Zalgiris are hosts, and they will also host the Final Four. Neptunas were on a 6 game winning run when the club's financial problems escalated, and in the past month they lost four key players. Center Klimavicius, their best scorer Baron, their best assistant, point guard Drew and Johnson. All of them played in Neptunas' last win over Dzukija in the championship (Johnson and Baron were their best scorers), when they left, their winning run ended immediately. They lost to Juventus by 9 at home on Saturday, they had only 7 players in rotation, and we should expect a similar thing today because they are still looking for some replacements.
They faced Zalgiris twice this season, they lost by 10 away, but that was in the period when Zalgiris had a difficult fixture schedule in Euroleague and only 48 hours after their game against Baskonia, three days before their clash against Fener. Zalgiris won at Neptunas by 28. I also expect a convincing performance by Zalgiris today. They have recently defeated teams like CSKA and Barcelona at home, and this is a specific game, there is no return fixture, so we should expect the home team to be highly focused, they have no Euroleague games this week, and they are focused on the Cup. Considering the condition at Neptunas, the quality difference is huge, bigger than in the past. In my opinion, the best option is full time handicap because of the short rotation in away team, who will drop as the game progresses, and I doubt they can keep up for long.