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Elverum ruined my bet a week ago, with their last offense. They had a shot for a six-goal difference, I saw the ball in the net, but it was on the outside after all. That's no reason not to pick them today. Everything I said then still stands true. It's not even forcing the team that is a much better one, proving it throughout the season and getting over this margin every time this season.
Elverum didn't play their best a week ago, and they know it. The first half was especially bad. They had a bad start, Drammen got swinging, Holm saving, and they were forced to keep on keeping up. Despite the bad game, they still had one-goal difference after the first half. They were messing it up in the second, playing at about 70% in the last 15 minutes or so. They they got to a five-goal difference in a few offenses, and the story was done, without Drammen even turning around. Anyway, they won by five by playing badly.
They're definitely going to be better today because they never played two games badly in a row this season. And this game is the key to pass through. What's especially important today is that story with the red cards against LTH. The Alliance still hasn't made a decision. Supposedly, Elverum could lose Apelgren on the bench for a month, and play without Bliznac, Overby, Poklar and Toft in the future games. In that case, time to get ready will be super important. If Elverum win this, they'll have a few days more to get ready for the possible opponents, unless Kolstad, Fyllingen and Bodo finish the job today. Either way, the best course of action for Elverum to take now is to solve the quarterfinal issue today, and be in peace and ready for the decision by the Alliance.
Statistically, Elverum played 23 league games and went over this margin in 16. They stayed under three times at the beginning of the season, in the first five games, that is, and were struggling against BSK, Haslum and Fyllingen, teams much better than Drammen.
In the regular part of the season, Elverum won the game here by nine goals. Haslum crushed them by 17, so the home floor isn't that important really. Considering everything, I think the three-goal difference is too little for the defending champion against the eight-ranked team of the national championship.