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Aquas really play great defense home. That sees them stand up to a lot better teams than themselves. They conceded 22 to Madeira, 22 to Benfica, 30 to Sporting, who have by far the greatest offensive potential in the league, 24 to Braga, 26 and 27 to Porto and recently 30 to Madeira, which is a problem to some extent but Madeira go all out in offense and play really fast. Benfica do not have that game style.
Benfica, on the other hand, do much worse away than home. They aren't doing great, especially in offense. They scored 25 against Braga in Supercup, 18 against Porto, 22 against Aquas in the first h2h here, 25 against Sporting, 30 and 37 against Madeira (as I already said, Madeira games are not relevant here), 25 against Avanca who are close to Aquas in quality, 23 against Braga and 27 against Porto who recently don't play the kind of offense they played earlier in the season. They scored 28 in EHF the Anaitasuna game which fell apart, 23 against the Cocks and 22 against Melsungen. This season they scored 27 and 28 in h2h games. As I said, they do much better home. Last year, they got limited to 24 here. Benfica won't be close to 30 today, Aquas can limit them easily and that is why I'll go with top stake here.