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I don't understand why this is a 50-50 game and the odds given by the bookmakers. The reason for that are probably the results of the previous round, but the whole championship has not been taken into consideration. Avanca have lost at Belenenses (slightly poorer performances away), but Belenenses played great in that game (and they have been in great form lately), at the limit of their abilities, and there is no way they let them win. Arsenal, on the other hand, defeated Horta whom I already wrote about, they are inconsistent and they can lose convincingly to anyone, so it is not a minus to today's bet.
Avanca are a much better team than Arsenal, they are worth more than the relegation zone, the proof for that is the fact that they secured their stay after 8 games, and won all of them. They have been great at home, they defeated Benfica and Braga, top teams in Portugal, so there is no reason why they wouldn't defeat Arsenal. Avanca have defeated all teams in the relegation zone at home, except Boa Hore which don't suit them (even though they defeated them away by 3 recently). I will only mention the win by 5 against Horta and Fafe, by 14 against Sao Mamede, because they are similar to Arsenal in quality. I will also mention away game (even though Avanca are much better at home), they defeated Gage by 2 and 6, Sao Mamede by 8 and Horta by 2.
Arsenal cannot compete with Avanca, they only have 11 players in rotation, and I am sure they will drop as the game advances. They lost every away game against stronger teams. Belenenses by 2, Maia by 3 (they are weaker than Avanca), double-digit defeats to Sporting, Braga, Benfica, Porto. The most relevant ones are the games against Aquas and Madeira whose quality is the same as Avanca's. Aquas at home by 4, away by 2, Madeira at home by 8, away by 10. Their head-to-heads are also in our favor, Avanca won here 29-23 in regular season, they had one away graw, but in December and that is not relevant here. The balanca of power was the most obvious in the first round of the relegation battle when Avanca demolished them by 23-34. The home team have secured their stay, but they will not give away wins, everything is in their favor today, and that is why I am going with the maximum bet here.