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Tenis » Basel (M), Hard court (indoor), 2nd Round
OddsStatsTip
24.10.2013. 14:10 Finished
Vasek Pospisil - Ivo Karlović (6:3 6:4)

Karlovic beat Berdych in three sets despite not having a single break point

  • Published:

The Croatian player had 23 aces and won 2 tie-breaks to beat the seventh player in the world. Pospisil got back at Haase for last week's defeat, but he's been doing badly when it comes to tie breaks this season, which could turn out to be the key segment of this match

PBZ Zagreb Indoors

Even though his serves don't have record breaking speed, Karlovic's service helped him set all kinds of other records. From the currently active players, only Federer has more aces, Karlovic won 82% of points after his first serve, which is the best percentage among the currently active player. More importantly, he has an average of 91% of his service games won. No other player in history is even close to that. He won a set without losing a single game for the first time ever last week at this level, and did something entirely different against Berdych.

He managed to reach a three set win without having a single break point in the entire match. Berdych won 78% of his first service points, he was one set ahead, and had a match point in the second set. He didn't use it, and never got the second chance. That is what happens when you play one of the best servers in history. Karlovic won both tie breaks after two and a half hours on the court. That is a great success for a veteran who himself admitted to having lost the semi final in Moscow last week because he was tired.

However, Berdych won't dwell on this defeat for long. He has secured a place in London, and still has to play the Davis Cup final as well. Karlovic's ranking is now eight positions better, so he won't have to play qualification for Australian Open.

Pospisil got back at Haas for beating him last week, but the match was still similar to the one they played in Vienna. Tha Canadian missed on his opportunities again, but didn't get punished for it this times around. The Dutch managed to save three consecutive break points in the sixth game, then two in the eight game, and finally lost his service after having a game point for 5-5. The second set wasn't much different - the Canadian missed on his chances again, but managed to win the break when Haase served to stay in the match.

He managed not to lose his serve till the end despite not having as many aces (only 3 in 10 service games). His break point usage (2/11) might be a problem, and that will be the key segment of this match. Karlovic proved against Berdych that poor returns are not something he's worrying about. He waited on his chances and used them, which is something young Pospisil's game still lacks. Another bad news for him is his tie break score. It's only 9-15 this season, and up until Vienna, he lost 10 consecutive tie breaks. However, they didn't play any tie breaks in their only head to head match, despite playing 3 sets, but that an exception for Karlovic. In case he wins, two Croatian players will meet in the quarter final - Dodig already won his match.

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Number of service breaks in first set 0,5 tip: under   Seeker
Odds Stake Min. odds Bookmaker
5.50 3/10 3.10 William Hill
Though this is not suggested by their first and only match so far, I am going to bet on no breaks in the first set. Karlovic beat Berdych without winning a break point. The conditions here are much faster than in Moscow, the ball stays lower, which makes him struggle on the return. In Moscow the ball bounced higher, the surface was slower, and he had more time to attack. Pospisil is an aggressive player who will mostly look for fast points on the return. This is usually not a a good combination in a match like this one. He has a good serve, he often plays tie-breakers and knows who he's against. He will undoubtedly hold his serve as well, and wait for his chance. In these conditions I expected much worse odds on a no-break first set. For those who do not have access to WillHill, bets such as a tie-break in the first set or over 12.5 games offer a solid alternative.
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**There is a chance that the odds shown on this page are not actual odds at this moment, due to a slight delay in processing the odds.

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