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Even though Tomljanović had a real drama in the first round, I believe she is underestimated here. She was recently defeated by Zhang in three sets and a lot has changed since. The surface has changed as Zhang didn't move too well against Hsieh. more importantly, she injured her shoulder in Acapulco and has had a much slower serve and has been offering more break chances ever since. This injury has affected her forehand as she feels the pain with her normal strokes so she is playing in fear of repeating her injury. While she got less than 50% of points after the first serve against Hsieh, Tomljanović had 72% against Goerges and the serve is the main reason for this bet. The Croatian player does not offer too many break chances in most of her games while she will have plenty of break chances in Zheng's serve. Despite the fact that most of her recent wins have come in three sets, the margin for this handicap is too low, and when you factor in the circumstances, I think it's worth a medium to high stake.