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A lot points towards Sijsling winning here, but +2.5 is a fine safety indoors. Ever since the tournament started some players spoke of how tired since Australia they are. Troicki is a good example, struggling against tricky indoors players and barely winning in the end, despite great motivation. I don't know if the same applies to Mannarino, who also played a lot in Australia, ending up in the hospital as well. Now he faces his first indoors match of the season, against an opponent that's rearing to go. Sijsling has been in crisis for a long time but these are conditions he likes. Indoors is where he can do work. Next week he is in Rotterdam, defending a lot of points, and he might get some pressure off here. He served very well in the first round, and the head to head score is very important here. The Dutch player decisively won all three previous matches, never losing more than three games per set. Last year in Madrid they had 5/12 in break points on quick clay, then a year before 5/7 in break points. In both of those he allowed only one chance on returns. Since the Frenchman's strongest suit is the tricky game he plays with low balls, this obviously doesn't fly against Sijsling. I personally played on the Dutch to win, 2-0 in sets, but this is definitely a safer version.