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Continuing to pick first set tie-break for several reasons. Karlović lived up to our expectations, playing four matches in his USA tour and failing to get the bet through only once, against Brown who made two double faults in a game he lost. Krajicek, Lacko and Kokkinakis all covered this bet, and Johnson should too. The American has plenty of experience with tall servers, after all he did beat Karlović in both previous matches, but with lots of luck, in an extended third set tie-break. It's all clear here and the American knows what's coming. He is not the kind of player to get scared of being unable to return, and can hold his serve. Everything points to a tie-break. In his two matches against Isner four of the five sets played were decided in a tie-break. Against Raonic he had four in three matches. In all those matches we saw a first set tie-break. He has four tie-breaks in two matches against Karlović, so the choice is clear. Over on games in the match also sounds good, despite the margin being high, which was to be expected.