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Simon is finally playing at a high level and no longer showing his dissatisfaction during the match like he used to. At Rotterdam he showed he can beat the ones he should and lose to those superior to him at the time, which makes him reliable right now, mentally and game-wise. He beat Murray by maintaining the same level of performance, which worked since Murray played terribly, and he did not decline. Berdych beat him because he played really well, and Simon could not endanger him with his style. Borna started the year in line with expectations, losing to someone one would expect him to lose and winning matches he was expected to win. He is improving with each new match, but is still far from Simon's level as his opponent is in better shape and a better player right now, meaning he will win most long rallies. Since Borna is not as aggressive and strong in his shots, and they fly too short, I believe he will not be able to threaten Simon. If he goes into longer rallies Simon will outplay him, and playing aggressively would lead to more mistakes and not damaging the opponent's offense as much as he should. We should also not that Borna is more likely to have ups and downs than Simon here, which is an added bonus. Overall, due to the current game and abilities of both players, as well as home court advantage, I expect Simon to win by at least 3 breaks, which is enough to cover this handicap.