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Ferrer was bad here in the last two years, he lost his first games against Tursunov and Gabashvili. With that, he has a 7-1 ratio on clay this year, but he won under 17 games only once (I am not counting the forfeit against Estrella). These numbers are not in favor of this pick, if we are to look for some bad sides. Everything else, far more important in my opinion, is on the side of the bet and convincigly so. Ferrer won his last five matches against Montanes and every time his countryman won games. In the 11 sets he once won three games, and two or less in the other matches. In their last match at Roland Garros two years ago, he won only three break points in three sets. This is more than domination. Besides, they played here five years ago. Montanes had the best ranking of his career then, he was on the verge of entering the Top 20, and he took only two games. He is out of the Top 100 now, at the end of his career. I still don't understand how Berankis gambled away the win against him in the first round. He won the first set by losing only one game, and even then Montanes had to save a break point. After that the Lithuanian missed same chances, and then failed at the service to stay in the set. He also missed 5-3 in the third set. Realistically, Berankis was supposed to win in this limit as well, and he plays on clay only when he has to. Ferrer learned his lessons in the last two years here and I believe he will approach this match very carefully. In the six years before, he at least reached the semi-final. Montanes couldn't compete with him even in his best days. His game style suits Ferrer, and the difference between them is bigger than ever. If he won 16 games in the previous 11 matches they played, what is ahead of him now?