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Almagro: I defeated Rafa last year, so why not do it again?

Nadal avoiding the role of the favorite again, even though he won 8 back-to-back titles in Barcelona. Almagro needed only three games to defeat Lorenzi who came only for the check. He is now facing his longtime executioner, but it was here that Almagro ended Nadal's reign

Even though he won the Monte Carlo tournament eight times in a row, Nadal made sure that no one expected him to do it again. He repeated day in and day out that he is not the favorite, that there is no pressure on him and that his only wish was to play better than on the previous tournament. He didn't set high goals for himself  because he really played badly in Miami. 

The Spaniard achieved three victories in Monte Carlos. Pouille was an easy draw because the Frenchman had only two wins on the clay. Isner could have won in two sets. Rafa took the first beak in the third set, and he was behind the baseline too much in the first two sets, which he himself admitted. He lost a set against Ferrer, even though he should have won it in two sets. His countryman won that part of the game with four consecutive games. At the end he lost to Djkovic, as expected. He had a double break chance in the first set. He didn't use it and the Serbian player did what needed to be done. Novak had a much more difficult task later against Berdych. 

- I'm satisfied. This was, mentally, the best tournament of the season - Nadal stuck to his story and added:

- If I continue that rhythm here as well, and the draw is difficult, I think I will be satisfied once again. I am motivated, and that's what's important. I'm working hard. It's all a process and the goal is to reach a good form as soon as possible. I am looking forward to the upward trajectory. 

Rafa's ratio on this tournament is 42-2. He probably doesn't even remember the defeat against Corretja, it was 12 years ago. After that he took 8 consecutive titles and it was his today's opponent who stopped that run. Almagro turned around the match last year, and Rafa is now opening the tournament against him. Not an easy task: 

- Difficult draw, especially for the first match. Nico is a dangerous player. If he wins, I will shake his hand. No matter the results, it is important to keep working. I, of course, want to win, there is no doubt about that. 

Nadal had to convince the press because he was defensive again, as if he was preparing himself for a disappointment. Almagro was supposed to have one match more because he played in the first round. He should have, but he advanced to the second round after three games. Lorenzi only came for the check. According to the local media, he is the only one who didn't do a single practice. He came injured from the USA and he wasn't ready to play. Most players would cancel their appearance, but 7000 Euros, which is what you get for playing the tournament, clearly sounds too good. The Italian lost three games and forfeited the match. Nice profit for ten minutes of playing. 

- This was the shortest match of my career - Almagro joked after an easy win, and then turned to Nadal: 

- I defeated him last year, so why not again. I am motivated and ready. Last year was difficult because of the injury, so I have to catch up now. I feel like I'm starting over again. I am out of the Top 100, but I'm feeling good and I'm motivated for the rest of the season. 

Clearly skipping Monte Carlo was a tactical move, so that he could better prepare for this tournament where he played his best tennis for years. That's exactly what he'll need against Nadal, with one big difference. He now knows how to defeat his countyman. After ten consecutive defeats he managed to end Nadal's reign. Considering how Rafa is playing, Almagro has the right to believe he can repeat las year's result. 

I often had this bet even when Nadal played much better, with more confidence, when the numbers weren't in our favour this much. This season Rafa has a 7-2 ratio on clay, but he went over 9 games in the first set eight times. Not against Novak, which is a section in its own right, against Fognini, who doesn't play on a template, and Delbonis. That is why this bet passed against players like Arguello, Carreno Busta and Berlocq. They can't win points with their serve as well as Almagro can. This bet passed seven times in their last seven head-to-head matches. Only one match of those was on the hard surface. They met in Barcelona two times and the first set of both matches finished with the tie breaker. The surface here is pretty fast and service is an advantage, but that is not the only reason for this bet. Almagro defeated Nadal here last year, and he is now even more confident. Rafa is too careful, he stands far behind the baseline, and his passing shots are not as perfect as they used to be. I repeat, I regularly played this bet in the previous years when Nadal was a class of his own, when he was demolishing others. Nadal can rearly demolish anyone this year, and tradition says that the chances for that are even smaller against Almagro. With all this, there is a good chance that Almagro will be serving first because Rafa often picks the return after the coin toss. That is why my additional recommendation is to wait for the live-betting.