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Bogota is a special tournament as it's played in conditions far from ideal for this sport. Everyone struggles with estimating how the ball will bounce at the altitude of 2500 meters, which is why qualifiers have the upper hand. Demoliner was not even your averagely good challenger player. He is a good doubles player now, he made it into Top 80 and recently played Wimbledon third round. He reached main draw through qualifying rounds here. He struggled to adjust in the first round but then played very convincingly. He beat Chiudinelli in straight sets and that was a big surprise. Even though Marchenko has been having a very good season he's far from someone who wins by routine. The matches in which he was a heavy favorite are particularly interesting. He has 9 overs and 3 unders at this margin in matches when the odds are 1.25 or less at him. He is simply playing tough matches with everyone. He forced Karlovic into a third set tie-break in Newport and played third set tie-break with underdog Kruger a week ago. Bogota is very tricky, especially in one's opening match. I expect that the Brazilian will be a tough nut to break. I think he'll get a set but Marchenko should win in the end. It will not be easy and the margin is set too low.