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Melzer won three challengers in the first two months, played the Davis Cup, and deserved the break he took. He's proven on clay, and almost in the Top 100. He's got 22-4 in challengers this season, and he played a final last week. He showed consistency with each week at the beginning of the year, so no surprise him starting this with two wins. The odds often underestimate him. Today especially. Donaldson is good, but he doesn't really stand out in these conditions. He played three clay tournaments this season - he lost to Kicker twice, an Argentinian who got beaten by Melzer in straight sets at the beginning of the year. Laaksonen took him to the third set, Andreozzi had him on the ropes in the second round here, leading 6-1 5-4, but then things got turned around. He lost to Arguello and Fratangelo on clay last year. Pouille left him with five games, as did Delbonis, and Kudla six. There were some big wins, though, like Stepanek, but Stepanek was just back from a surgery and a long break. He's beaten Elias who was great but out of form, so it was an even match all in all. I think that Melzer is much more of a favorite than the odds would suggest. I went for the handicap because that's what numbers are pointing me to. Donaldson's got eight clay defeats in this and last year, and he lost this handicap every time. It was under six points difference only once. On the other hand, since the handicap is -3 here, Melzer didn't cover it only once in his last ten clay wins. Against Monteiro who's beaten Tsonga and Almagro this year, and he matched Cuevas. He's got 70-10-16 covering -3 in the last five years (the middle number is void). Considering his form, the court, the numbers, everything shows that Melzer will easily win this, and convincingly enough to cover this handicap.