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Bourgou did great things this season, he reached Bucaramanga and Santo Domingo semi-finals, and An-Ning final. He managed to defeat Schwartzman in Bordeaux. That match was the best confirmation of Mathias' current confidence. He lost the first set after a tight tiebreak, but he made a comeback. In the end he won by 6 games against a quality player like Diego. The Frenchman has clearly been steadily improving in all segments. On the other side we have Van Peperzeel's form. He also played at An-Ning, and while Mathias reached the final, he won only one game against Banes, a player who never reached the Top 300. The week before that, in Nanjing, he lost to Ghedin who is currently outside the Top 500. It is obvious that Gavin is out of form, especially when it comes to clay court. He struggled on futures clay as well, Goluza, who is ranked outside the Top 2000, won a set against him, and he lost to Nolan (950). Absolutely everything suggests that Mathias should easily win today. I expect that he will win in straight sets and that this match will stay under the set margin. Gavin finished his last match by winnign a game and I don't see why he would take a set into tiebreak against Bourgue. Two years ago, at the Futures level, they were at exactly 20 games in Bourgue's win, a lot has changed in his favor since then. He is currently playing his best tennis, my impression is that the Frenchman will definitely dominate this match.