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Leykina recorded 39 wins on clay last year. Of the better known players she defeated only Buyukacay who is now in the Top 100. That was an open match, and Buyukacay suffered more defeats like that, so that wasn't an exception. Not one of Leykina's last year's matches is relevant and she doesn't have any other match against a Top 100 player. This year she played against Top 100 players and against well known players. She lost by 6 games to Kanepi (5-7, 2-6), by 7 to Siniakova (4-6, 1-6), by 8 to Koukalova (2-6, 2-6). We should mention Pigossi who is currently barely in the Top 400, against whom she lost by 9 (0-6, 3-6). I won't mention Dolonc who is outside the Top 500 and Aburaimova who doesn't know what she's doing on clay. Leykina lost both of those matches, the first one by three games, the other by one game. We should also point out that Kanepi is outside the Top 200, and she was still recovering from illness when she played against Leykina, and that was her first match at that tournament. Koukalova is outside Top 150 this year, she has 6/12 and she doesn't really know where she 'hits'. Siniakova could be the best connection to Kovinic, because of the playing style and quality. In the second set she limited Leykina to one game, in the first set to four. But in the first round of the tournament in Trnava.
Leykina wasn't really supposed to be in the second round today. She won one game in the first set against Xu, and she could have lost that one as well. Xu is probably the only one who knows what happened later in the match. She did not save her serve once in the second set, she lost a break advantage three times in the third one, twice served for the match, 6-3 in the tiebreak of the third set... Considering Leykina's stats in that match, I cannot see how she can cause any problems for Kovinic today. Kovinic limited Podorska, a player who played the qualifications, and played the first WTA match of her career, to one game. And in Kovinic's first match after Wimbledon. The Montenegrin won over 60% of points after the first serve, and she limited Podorska to low numbers. Leykina cannot do much better than that, I am sure of it. Especially because Kovinic already played a match here. Kovinic won in three sets against Vickery, but Vickery was close to Top 100 and has some WTA experience. The only 'intruder' this year is the match against Ferro, but she was playing at home. Last year in the Czech Republic, Kovinic also had problems against two Czech players as the favorite, but it is well known that domestic players can play much better at home. Leykina is not playing at home today. This year, Kovinic defeated Dominguez Lino by 9 games, Hsieh by 7, Vinci by 6, Nara by 6, Buyukakcay by 8, Soler Espinosa by 7. Last year she defeated Hogenkamp by 8, Min by 6, Bonaventura by 6 and some other players stronger than Leykina by a few games.