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When we're talking about Isner, then we always have a tie-break of the first set as the bet we need to focus on. Of course, bookies go down on odds in indoor and grass conditions. Today we have bigger odds on account of Murray, but that doesn't change things much, I'd say. For starters, we have to say how this and last year Isnr's record in going into the tie-break of the first set is 19-9. Only this confirms a number of things. Still, in order to get that score into relevant matches, I'll focus on matches against Top 5 where Murray belongs. In the last two years it looks like this: Murray (13), Federer (13). If we put players who are in or around Top 10, then it's like this: Cilic (13), Tsonga (13), Del Potro (13), Del Potro (10). If we put this aside because Cilic, Tsonga and Del Potro are not Murray's level on the return, it's enough to take a look at Murray's and Isner's head-to-heads. The Scotsman has the smooth 6-0 in wins, and each match had a tie-break in the first set. This year they went into a tie-break on Roland Garros's clay. Last year in Shanghai we also saw a tie-break. Last season in DC, two tie-breaks, two years before that two in Cincinnati. Each match went into a tie-break of the first set, and only one of those matches was played indoors or on grass (last season's DC). If we focus on Isner's matches against Top 5 names, generally in the last two seasons, no matter the conditions, he played like this: Murray (13, 13, 13), Djokovic (10, 13, 8), Federer (13, 13), Nadal (13), Nishikori (10, 10). All in all, he has 7-4 against Top 5 names in going over in the first set which clearly indicated that he doesn't care who he's playing against. In the last two seasons against Federer, Djokovic and Murray he has 6-2 in going over in the first set. He went into an over on clay against Nadal last season, and out of all these matches, only one was indoor or grass (again DC against Murray). As for Murray, this and last season in fast conditions his record is 7-42. It sounds very desperate, but we can't compare Isner or Karlovic to other players. Murray has 13-0 in matches against Ivo and Isner. Yes, he knows how to deal with them, his return is good, but he always went into the over of the first set against Isner. If we're going to look for a negative thing in this bet, that would be Murray's record against Raonic. With him he almost never went into the tie-break of the first set. In the last three seasons his record in going over in the first set is 1-7, in fast conditions 1-2. However, duels against today's opponent (6-6) which is important, and against Ivo (4-7), but also Isner's record against names similar to Murray indicate how we have a value in this one.