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Atletico continue to give completely opposite performances at home and in disinterested away games, where they are the most inefficient team of the league, while they average two per game in home games. So far they have shown to be a rewarding team to bet home team scores >1.5, and today the option of over on the game seems nice, as the charging Goias are coming to visit. Long past the imperative of results, the home team is focusing on the team world championship. They have some players missing, but that is mostly on the defense, which is a chance for the excellent Goias to extend their series of games where they've scored.
Goias have scored in every one of their last 20 games, they are in a heated battle to maintain their third spot, which they reached via a 8-1-0 series, and I believe they will score yet again today. Also, since they are playing an away game vs second ranked Gremi in the next round, they need to try and take all three points here, as the other contenders are very close indeed. We have no reason to doubt the many times proven offensive capabilities of Atletico in their home arena, especially since the offensive players on offer today include Luan, Alecsandro, Diego Tardelli, Fernandinho, and Jô, whose injury is not serious.
In the previous seasons Atletico played over in the home games at the end of the season, and should continue to do so today as well, especially as the opponent has something to say too. This makes the >2.25 option attractive, as it returns half the bet in case only two goals are scored.