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After a nerve wrecking end of the last season, and less than convincing start to the new one, Benfica are finally winning and currently share the first position with Sporting following the string of five championship wins. They are two points ahead of Porto and still have to play three teams from the bottom part of the championship table till the end of the year, which is why we can expect them to at least stay two points ahead until their head to head game. They are a great favorite for the win against the humble Arouca, despite missing Matic and Cardozo. The fans are certainly happy because they are now able to win even when they're not playing good, which happened against Braga and in some previous games. Arouca are an opponent against which Cardozo's absence won't be as significant because Lima is finally back in form. Rodrigo and Lima will lead their defense today, and I don't think that visiting team's slow defense can do anything about them. They are both faster than Cardozo and their mobility will create space for the other offense players.
This is Arouca's first time among the best teams, and they've been holding up quite well until the fifth round, and then lost the last seven games. In best case scenario, they will be fighting not to be relegated, coach's position is already not safe. It's hard to expect he can survive getting only 2 out of the possible 21, or even 24 points. Their game relies on attempts from the distance and set pieces, but even that will be difficult tonight - they first need to gain possession for it.
Just to compare, Porto played one of the two worst games of the season against Arouca and won by 2 goals away, which will be no problem for Benfica home. The odds of around 1,60 are quite good, given the difference between the teams, and the fact that it's under 1,45 in most betting houses.