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Even though often times a home pitch doesn't mean the home team's a favorite in the duel between the clubs of same quality in Portugal, I'd say this is an exception, and it shows in their results. In a duel of two teams equally bad, I don't see why the odds are set to equal, and in some bookmakers, Belenenses are even a slight favorite. The table shows these two are the worst guests of the league, and their schedule makes the points from today more important for Olhanense because they only have three home matches after this, and against the clubs that they can hardly defeat. Olhanense got decent 7 points since the Italian started coaching them in four home matches, and besides that effect of the points, Galderisi psyched the players psychologically. He said he found them with their heads down, and now they believe in survival and breathe like a team, which wasn't easy to create from a legion of strangers that the Italian management brought this summer and this winter. Belenenses have the same ratio for matches at home and away as Olhanense do, and that shows that they only got three points in away matches, which means they haven't won away in 10 months, and that's what's supposed to happen to break this bet. You can't win if you don't score, and they haven't scored in away matches since September, or 735 minutes in the league. Besides the home pitch, the home team also have experience on their side because Belenses came here from the second league this season, and they haven't changed their roster much, so they started the season with players too inexperienced for this level, and they also had bad luck with their coach who had to leave because of a sickness, so the team were left with his assistant. Olhanense are made from the legion members, but they're far more experienced players who went through stuff in the Italian Serie A and B, and I don't see them defeated today. Even a tie makes this bet half a win.