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Perfectly efficient Atletico without their leading scorer

With a win over Real, Atletico achieved the best season opening in the history of the club and they have showed their strength this season while Porto still need to do that since they have not played against nearly as strong teams as Atletico are, but Atletico are without Diego Costa

Porto are facing their biggest challenge of the season tonight, in a season in they showed good results, but not good play and their performance dropped slightly in the last few games. Porto played their last league match on Friday against Guimaraes and started the match good, they had several chances and almost 70% ball possession in the first half. But they managed to capitalize on that only in the second half when Josue scored from a penalty kick which many found to be harshly given. Their intensity and offensive performance were not that high after they took the lead, the same as against Gil Vincente, and the score remained unchanged for the rest of the match.

According to what we saw in the last few matches, it is obvious how much Joao Moutinho meant for Porto. The matches like the one today will show whether Porto is in a crisis or are they simply saving their energy in domestic league. Their coach Paulo Fonseca described their today's opponents as a team from the Apennines, not Pyrenees.

- I see Atletico as an Italian team in Spanish league. They stand deep when they defend and are very balanced in counterattacks. We have to be the team that dictates the tempo, we have to be patient in seeking almost non-existent space in their defense.

The match against Atletico is the first of two matches Porto are playing at home and their coach said:

- We know the importance of home matches and it is important for us to win in the next two matches in order to avoid pressure in remaining matches. Each match is difficult and I expect Atletico to give us problems we do not usually see in our domestic league.

The only injured player in Porto is their reserve center back Maicon and Defour's suspension for the red card from the previous season has expired and on the 18-player list there was no room for Diego Reyes, Carlos Eduardo and Marat Izmajlov.

Atletico has to be taken seriously by everyone after this weekend when they won at the stadium of their biggest rivals. That well-deserved win was their seventh in the league and that set their record for most wins at the start of the season. They played equally good in the Champions League in which they routinely won against Russian Zenit and today they will have another difficult test in Portugal.

In their domestic league, Atletico gave a lesson to Real Madrid and it would be expected to see the same starting eleven as in that match, but Diego Simeone will be forced to make some changes. Their standard midfielder Mario Suarez will not play due to sustained injury and Tiago Mended should start in his stead, which in fact should not be a big problem for the team.

Center back Diego Godin is officially questionable due to injury, but it is significant to note that the Spanish media mention Toby Alderweireld as a starting player which means that Godin will not start. The Belgian Alderweireld recently cam from Ajax, but he still did not have a chance to play a lot for Atletico. The most significant absence will be in the offense where they can not count on Diego Costa, a player who scored a winning goal against the Real. Costa does not have a right to play due to suspension he deserved in the Europa League last year. Adrian Lopez is out of line up for a long time.

- I am still not 100% sure which 11 will start against Porto. We will play the same style as always, the names can be different, but our style of play has to remain the same - explained the Argentinian coach.

He offered an interesting reply to the question how will he replace Costa.

- The most obvious replacements for him are Raul Garcia and Leo Baptistao, but I have some ideas on my mind and I am thinking about certain midfielders, but I want to keep that to myself. In any case, he will be properly substituted.

This is a match in which most people will at first glance bet on Atletico who deserved that with their excellent performance, but this duel on Dragao is a match where there are arguments for all three possibilities, as corny as that sounds. The great shape goes in favor of Los Colchoneros, and the home field in which Porto rarely loses and (too) high odds are making Porto an interesting bet, and those who will bet on a draw because of the importance of the match are also be right.
Porto don't look very good in recent matches and they will hardly dominate from the start to the end as it was last year against Malaga and PSG in home matches of Champions League while Simeone's Atletico is a tough nut to crack and a fighting team which kept their goal empty against Barcelona this season (Supercup) and Real this weekend. It is the win against Real where the possible trap is in betting on them because they might be drained after such a win over a big rival whom they haven't won against for 14 years. A big disadvantage for Atletico is the absence of top scorer DIego Costa who scored 8 out of 19 Atletico's goals.
A cautious approach and a tough match is to be expected as Porto usually play in the Champions League against strong opponents. PSG, Zenit, Shakhtar and Schalke came here during the past years, together with seven matches against strongest English teams, and all together only two of them ended 2-1 with all others below that score. In the last 26 home matches in the Champions League, Porto conceded more than one goal only once and Atletico conceded five in last 13 away matches so this evening's match points to 1-1 at most regarding the score.