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This is a very important game for both teams. Pao are in a tricky situation as they have to think about securing the second phase at all and not about being the top of the group that was the aim before this season. If Zvezda lose and Laboral beat Rytas in Vitoria, the Serbian team will be without any chances. What Pao have shown so far is very disappointing and this especially refers to the first halves when they lost by some 15 points against Rytas at home, or in Vitoria when they allowed 55 and were losing by 11, and Belgrade as they allowed 48 and were down by 16. I expect them to be at a top level today from the first minute and in these circumstances they are one of the best defensive teams in Europe. Before the first game, we had a tip for under 153 points for a strong stake (7/10) that failed because of Schilb's 3-pointer that took the game into over-time, but the regular time ended in 148 points. Today we will have the same tip but with a slightly lower margin (150.5). The Greeks can and will push Zvezda as they did in the second half of the first game when the allowed only 26 points. The key is to prevent Blažič, Nelson and Jenkins from running, while Gist can guard Schilb and if they know how to do it, they've don 70 % of their job. It is a situation in which you can't relax and when you put the pressure on Zvezda and you take this away from them they become a sub-par team. Statistically speaking, this is not a good tip - Pao have 3 unders without over-time, Zvezda only 2, but these are completely different circumstances and I will adapt to them.