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A defeat would eliminate Uruguay, Suarez still doubtful

Uruguay's defeat against Costa Rica has a been a major blow for them and a defeat today would mean the end of the line for them. The English can go through even if they lose today

Uruguay's defeat against Costa Rica was one of the biggest surprises in the first round. All the more so as Tabarez's team had the lead at the end of the first half and was expected to bring it to a calm close. But things went downhill fast in the second half. A win is an imperative for them today as a draw would put them in a very unfavorable position. A defeat would mean the end of their chances of reaching the Round of 16.

- We will change everything today. Many things didn't work out well against Costa Rica, but we are aware of our mistakes. We have been working on them for the past couple of days. We need a win and we will go for it with all we've got - said Uruguayan coach. 

Does 'all they've got' include Suarez?

- Suarez is still doubtful. The chances are minimal, it would be a real gamble - Tabarez admitted that his best player will probably miss today's game. Of course, unless it's one of his tricks, which is why we must take this statement with a pinch of salt.

The changes that Tabarez mentioned were mostly related to their approach and some tactical details. The system shouldn't undergo any major changes as Uruguay are playing with the best at their disposal at the moment. 

- England are a great team and it won't be easy. They did very well against Italy, but they lacked a bit of luck. Their team is a mixture of youth and experience, which is always the best combination. We will have to play a really smart game to handle the pace of their players - said Tabarez. 

As was mentioned earlier, the English lost their first round game as well. In a pretty even game, the Italians were a bit luckier and got all three points. Unlike Uruguay, who have to win today, the English can go through even if they lose today. In that case, Costa Rica should lose against Italy and the English should beat Costa Rica in the last round with as high margin as possible, and Uruguay would have to lose against Italy. It's not entirely impossible, but it would be crazy to expect this outcome.

- Today, we attack with all we've got. That doesn't mean we will play without defense, but we simply have to win today. That's all that matters for us - Hodgson was clear ahead of the game. 

Just like with Uruguay, that doesn't mean we will see many changes in the squad. In fact, it seems that only Wilshere will step in for Henderson in midfield. However, one can expect Rooney to slot in as central forward (second striker), while Sterling will move onto the wing, despite his excellent performance against Italy.

- I will keep the tactical changes to myself. After all, you'll see everything during the game - the English coach didn't want to reveal any details.

In the end, he added that he won't be fooled by Uruguay's poor performance in the first game. He says he saw about a dozen of their games and that he knows where their biggest danger lies.

The referee Carlos Velasco Carballo is renowned as one of the milder refs. He rarely gives out yellow cards (3.72) and he almost never shows the reds (5 in 53 international games). 

In the first round, England didn't have luck with the ball possession. Italy had 60% of the ball possession, but then they scored and let the English to take the ball. It ended with 52% for the Italians. This England play vertical, fast. That's how they scored their only goal against the Italians, and I believe they'll try to play the same way today. Even more so because the Uruguayans are the ones who need to win no matter what, and will try to dominate. I think the English can "win" in the ball possession only if Uruguay lead early on, and they struggle in breaking their defense. For the offered stake, I'm willing to risk that kind of outcome. I have a feeling that the odds offered for the possession are based on the likelihood of the win, which isn't necessarily true. If the English lead first, I can see them setting on their half and allowing the Uruguayans to knit the net as much as they want to, and then trying to score from the counter attacks with Sterling, Rooney and Sturridge. There are lots of bets available that offer Uruguay's possession at 49 and 50%, but for that kind of a difference in the odds, I'm willing to risk that minute or two of possession going to Tabarez's team's side.

The stakes are high today. I don't expect free-flowing football but a real battle. In this case, putting the margin of fouls for either team at 12.5 is a mistake. First of all, Uruguay play a very aggressive game ( a total of 21 out of 38 fouls against Costa Rica), and you can't counter that with a soft approach. In addition, Uruguay have individuals that can create extra space 1-on-1 and the tall players that will be hard to defend against in the aerial battle. I expect at least 4-5 such fouls that will pump up these stats I personally think that Uruguay will try with Suarez and that's an additional bonus for this bet. If nothing else, he will provoke 2-3 fouls. If this bet were more accessible, the stake would be higher. An alternative is total over for fouls 28.5