betprepare.com

Benfica are quite expectedly huge favorite here as the opponents are from the second division but it's very hard to find an indicator that this will be an easy game, regardless of the difference in quality. Benfica have changed their approach this season and they aren't as dominant as they used to be in recent seasons, especially at home. Regardless of the venue, when they get the lead they slow down and they've scored more than two goals in only one out of last 8 games and their defense has become more stable in those 8 games with the change on goal as they have only conceded 1 goal in these 8 games. Tonight, they have an additional reason to save their energy due to upcoming derby against Sporting in four days. Bad weather in Northern Portugal still goes on and it was visible on Saturday how it makes things difficult as Benfica couldn't get two goals at their muddy pitch even with two penalties. Tonight they will face strong wind and an equally poor pitch, with mud and sporadic puddles. Penafiel have an average of 1.6 goals in their games in second division thanks to their great defense ( the best in the 2nd division) and their barren attack that has scored only 29 goals in 28 rounds. Tonight, they're playing their 41st game this season, their 10th in the last month and I believe they would have a problem scoring against Benfica even if they were better rested, while the poor conditions will definitely be reflected in the scoreline, as manager Miguel Leal said himself. Benfica have 11 clean sheets in 12 away games in the Cup since 2008 and I expect the same tonight, but I don't think they will score more than 1-2 goals. As a safety measure, I will take under 3.0 which means void in case of 3 goals.